AI IPO Race: Markets Eye OpenAI, Anthropic

The race to the public markets for AI's leading contenders, OpenAI and Anthropic, is being closely watched, with prediction markets offering a glimpse into investor sentiment. Traders on Kalshi are placing significant volume on which of these generative AI titans will conduct an Initial Public Offering first.

The market is leaning towards OpenAI making its debut before Anthropic, though both are seen as eventual public entities. A substantial $69,000 has been traded on the question of whether OpenAI or Anthropic will IPO first, with the 'Yes' option for Anthropic IPOing first holding 83.0% odds, implying a strong belief that one or both will happen, but the specific market is structured around which comes first.

This bet, expiring in 2040, reflects a long-term outlook on the maturation of the AI industry. The total combined volume across active Kalshi prediction markets reached $19.7 million, indicating broad investor interest in future technological and geopolitical landscapes.

AI and Tech Markets Reflect Future Ambitions

Beyond the OpenAI Anthropic IPO speculation, other AI and tech-related markets highlight investor focus on ambitious long-term projects. A significant $69.7K is in play regarding which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon, with the US currently favored at 55.0% odds.

SpaceX's endeavors are also a hot topic. Markets are betting on whether the company will land anything on Mars before 2030 ($61.7K volume) and whether Blue Origin will land on the Moon before SpaceX ($63.3K volume).

The prospect of nuclear fusion achieving a breakthrough is also drawing capital, with over $42K traded across various markets predicting when this energy milestone might be reached.

Even more speculative bets are being placed, such as whether a humanoid robot will walk on Mars before a human does ($47.8K volume), and whether the US will build a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030 ($7.6K volume).

These markets, detailed on Kalshi, All Markets, serve as a fascinating, albeit speculative, barometer of where investors believe technological progress and major global events are headed.

August 2026 Update: Revenue Numbers, PE Partnerships, and the Latest Odds

Both races have accelerated since mid-July. On the Anthropic side: the company's annualized revenue reached $30 billion as of April 2026, prediction markets now price a 78% probability of Anthropic going public before December 31, 2026, and Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley are leading a raise expected to exceed $60 billion at Nasdaq listing. The public S-1 filing could arrive in August or September, with pricing as early as October or November.

On the OpenAI side, a different distribution play has emerged. OpenAI is in advanced talks with Advent International, TPG, Bain Capital, and Brookfield Asset Management to form a $10 billion joint enterprise venture that would route OpenAI's tools into those firms' portfolio companies and beyond. The arrangement would give PE partners a guaranteed minimum return of 17.5% and board seats in the new entity. Enterprise revenue now accounts for more than 40% of OpenAI's total revenue and is projected to reach parity with consumer by end of 2026. For OpenAI, a formal IPO remains targeted for late 2026 or 2027.

StartupHub.ai data, which tracks both Anthropic (score: 76) and the broader AI model landscape, finds that the revenue gap between these two companies and every other pre-IPO AI startup we index is substantial: the median AI startup in our database with a late-stage funding round has annualized revenue below $100 million, while both Anthropic and OpenAI are operating at 30x to 100x that level. That gap is why prediction markets treat their listings as near-certainties within a defined window, rather than speculative bets. With both companies drawing from the same institutional capital pool, timing and valuation optics will drive the final order.

For a full breakdown of Anthropic's IPO timeline, valuation, and pre-IPO investment routes, see the Anthropic stock and IPO guide. For OpenAI, see the OpenAI IPO guide.

Frequently Asked Questions

When will Anthropic IPO?

Bankers are currently conducting pre-roadshow investor meetings, per CNBC (July 15, 2026). If the standard U.S. IPO timeline holds, a public S-1 filing could arrive in August or September 2026, with pricing potentially in October or November. Anthropic has not confirmed any specific dates.

Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

Prediction markets on Kalshi have this as a long-running bet. As of mid-2026, both companies are in active IPO preparation: Anthropic is in pre-roadshow investor meetings and OpenAI has Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan advising. The order remains uncertain; market odds fluctuate based on new filings and news.

What is Anthropic's IPO valuation?

Anthropic's most recent private valuation is $965 billion, set during its $65 billion Series H funding round completed June 1, 2026. This figure will be refined during the roadshow process based on institutional investor feedback.

How can retail investors access Anthropic stock before the IPO?

Retail investors cannot buy Anthropic shares before the IPO. Accredited investors may access secondary-market platforms such as Forge Global, EquityZen, or Hiive, which facilitate transfers from existing holders. Secondary prices may differ from the latest private-round valuation, and liquidity is limited.

Last updated: August 2026

StartupHub data

In our directory

SpaceX

Designs, manufactures, and launches advanced rockets and spacecraft, aiming to make humanity multiplanetary.

Founded

2002

Location

Starbase, Texas, United States

Valuation

$800K

Anthropic

Anthropic is an AI safety and research company building reliable, interpretable, and steerable AI systems, best known for the Claude family of models.

Founded

2021

Location

San Francisco, California, USA

Valuation

Private / $100B+ est

OpenAI

OpenAI is an AI research and deployment company dedicated to ensuring that artificial general intelligence benefits all of humanity.

Founded

2015

Location

San Francisco, United States

Valuation

Private / $100B+ est

Blue Origin

Developing space infrastructure for data centers and beyond.

Founded

2000

Location

Kent, Washington, USA

Valuation

$130.0B