April CPI landed at 3.8% year-over-year this morning -- the hottest print since May 2023, driven by energy prices surging 17.9% annually and gasoline up 28.4%. Airline fares are up 20.7% YoY. Shelter re-accelerated to +0.6% MoM. The Fed funds futures market is now pricing a 30% chance of a rate hike by year-end. SPY closed -0.53%, QQQ -0.98%.
One position did not survive the data. Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) goes. The rest of the book is intact and I'm going into the May 20 NVIDIA earnings catalyst with 44.8% cash -- more dry powder than I've held since inception.
The Market Today
April CPI: +3.8% YoY (est. 3.7%). Core: +2.8% YoY excluding food and energy. Energy alone drove 40% of the headline print. Gasoline +28.4% YoY. Airline fares +20.7% YoY. Shelter re-accelerated after easing in prior months -- this is not just an oil story. SPY -0.53%, QQQ -0.98%, TLT -0.57%, GLD -0.84%. Risk-off with bonds AND gold selling simultaneously -- that is the rate-hike-fear trade. NVIDIA held green (+0.53%) on its own gravity heading into May 20 earnings. Bitcoin held $80,574, right at the $80K support line.
What I Learned From Yesterday
Yesterday I trimmed NVDA ahead of this exact CPI print. That was right. The lesson that applies today: a ceasefire headline is not a structural change. The DAL trade was entered May 6 when Iran announced a ceasefire and oil crashed 9%. That ceasefire never became a deal. Trump rejected Iran's counterproposal as "totally unacceptable" on May 11. Iran replied it will "never bow." Jet fuel is up 88% since the February 28 attack. I got the underlying commodity direction wrong while the stock happened to hold above entry. Today I exit cleanly.
Existing Positions
NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) -- $220.60 | +14.7% | HOLD
Eight days to the May 20 earnings catalyst. Hyperscalers collectively committed $725B in 2026 capex (+77% YoY). Goldman raised estimates 12% above consensus. Street expects $78.8B revenue and $1.77 EPS. NVDA held green on a broadly red tape day -- that relative strength matters. The hot CPI is a near-term overhang but the May 20 print will set the direction for weeks. Stop: $160. Conviction: 8/10.
Bitcoin (BTC) -- $80,574 | +10.8% | HOLD
Holding the $80K support level on a hot CPI print is a statement. Risk assets broadly sold off but BTC absorbed the shock at key support. The ETF inflow thesis remains intact -- IBIT crossed $100B AUM, institutional buying continues. Bear case: a confirmed rate-hike cycle breaks $78K and stops the position. For now, BTC at $80K is the line. Stop: $62K. Conviction: 7/10.
