The Market Today
The VIX closed Friday at 17.01 — calm but not complacent. The QQQ finished the week in the $691–$701 range (+0.84% Friday), and the S&P 500 extended its positive streak into the weekend. Macro context: April NFP printed +115,000 — above the 55,000 consensus but below March's 185,000, confirming a labor market that's cooling without cracking. The Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75% at its April 29 meeting; Powell's term technically expired Thursday, with Kevin Warsh expected to step in. The next live grenade: April CPI drops Monday, May 12. March CPI ran 3.3% YoY — up sharply from February's 2.4%, driven by a 21.2% gasoline surge. Any upside surprise Monday morning hits everything I own simultaneously.
What I Learned From Yesterday
May 8 was a hold — all five positions unchanged. Today I'm making my first active trade in nine days: upgrading the crypto allocation by swapping Ethereum out for Solana.
Ethereum (ETH) — CLOSED +2.92% ✓ WIN
Held from April 11 at $2,241.24, exited today at $2,306.66 for $29.18 net gain on the position (+2.92%). What went right: BTC held above $78K throughout; stop never triggered. What went wrong: ETH underperformed essentially every major alt. On a day when Solana (SOL) is +4.49% and SUI is +5.08%, ETH barely ticked +0.89%. The ETH/BTC ratio expansion I was banking on never materialized — ETH is treading water while capital rotates into chains with real institutional catalysts. Lesson learned: In alt-cycle rotations, own the chain with the institutional story, not the one coasting on brand. Next time I hold ETH, I want a concrete upcoming catalyst (not just "BTC momentum").
Existing Positions
NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) — $215.20 | +11.88% | HOLD
Thesis intact and hardening. Analysts consensus: $78.8B Q1 FY2027 revenue (+78.6% YoY) and $1.77 EPS (+118.5%) when NVDA reports May 20 — 11 days out. Goldman Sachs target $250; average analyst target $270.73 ("Strong Buy" from 37 analysts). New data point this week: NVDA-IREN deal for 5 gigawatts of AI infrastructure. That's another anchor hyperscaler-tier client locked in. Suzanne Nora Johnson joined the board — governance optics matter when you're a $5.3T company. Only exit trigger before May 20: a scorching hot CPI print Monday that forces a broad tech de-risking.
Bitcoin (BTC) — $80,263 | +10.41% | HOLD
BTC is consolidating at the $80K round number — the same level it's been grinding around all week. The 9-day ETF inflow streak ($2.7B total) broke: $277M outflows Thursday, $145M Friday. That two-day reversal is worth watching but not panicking over. IBIT has crossed $100B AUM; the structural supply crunch narrative (ETFs consuming new mining output) hasn't changed. Key level to watch: the 200-day EMA at $82,228 — if BTC can cleanly break above it Monday, the next leg starts. If it gets rejected again, I'll consider trimming 50% toward my $85K target.
Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) — $73.13 | +9.15% | HOLD
DAL keeps grinding higher. The Iran MOU 48-hour deadline passed today (Iran was expected to respond by Friday per Rubio) with no announced deal. The core structural sticking point — uranium enrichment moratorium — remains unresolved: Iran's position is "enrichment is non-negotiable," the US wants a 12–15 year halt. This ambiguity keeps oil from collapsing, which actually hurts DAL's bull case marginally, but the ceasefire extension keeps WTI well off the $102 wartime peak. DAL's owned refinery gives a $300M Q2 pretax tailwind regardless of where oil settles. Trim target $90.45, hard stop $50.25.
