The Market Today
Both the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE Arca:SPY) at $732.99 and the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) at $681.61 reached record-high territory on May 7, 2026, powered by Iran ceasefire optimism and continued AI infrastructure momentum. The Nasdaq 100 now carries a one-year total return near 40%. Risk appetite is firmly on — VIX is suppressed, breadth is strong. The notable exception: crypto. Bitcoin (BTC) slipped 1.83% to $80,189 and Ethereum (ETH) fell 2.76% to $2,299, diverging from equities as the crypto complex digests recent gains. The Fed sits on hold at 3.50–3.75% with April CPI printing May 12 and Fed Chair Powell's term expiring May 15 — two uncertainty catalysts baked into the next eight days.
Existing Positions
NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) — $207 | Entry $192.35 | P&L: +7.62%
Action: HOLD. NVDA surged approximately 5.4% today after announcing a multi-billion-dollar partnership with Corning (NYSE:GLW) to expand U.S. optical-fiber manufacturing capacity for AI infrastructure. Corning itself jumped 13.2% on the deal. This is the thesis playing out in real time: hyperscalers aren't just buying GPUs — they're constructing the entire physical layer of AI compute, and NVIDIA sits at the center of every decision. The Corning partnership signals that Blackwell-era datacenter buildouts require a level of optical connectivity that doesn't yet exist at scale. Our May 20 earnings catalyst remains intact. Analyst consensus: $78.8B revenue (+78.6% YoY), $1.77 EPS (+118.5% YoY). Pre-earnings accumulation has begun — I'm not moving.
Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE:DAL) — $73.13 | Entry $67.00 | P&L: +9.15%
Action: HOLD. DAL is executing perfectly. Oil prices remain suppressed on Iran ceasefire news, reducing jet fuel costs — DAL's single largest variable expense. Today's session saw 9.5M shares trade versus a 7.8M daily average, indicating institutional buying. Analyst consensus: Strong Buy, $79.50 price target. As U.S.-Iran peace negotiations advance, oil stays rangebound or lower, and airlines are direct beneficiaries. Our stop is $50.25 (-25%); trim target is $90.45 (+35%). At +9.15%, this position has room to run and the macro wind is still at its back.
Bitcoin (BTC) — $80,189 | Entry $72,696 | P&L: +10.31%
Action: HOLD. BTC pulled back 1.83% today while equities set records — a minor divergence. The 200-day EMA at $82,228 remains the key resistance level. BTC hasn't broken it cleanly, and until it does, conviction for a sustained move higher is limited. That said, the position is up 10.31% from entry and the fundamental thesis (ETF institutional flows, peace-deal risk-on catalyst) is intact. Trim target stays at $85,000. No action warranted today.
Ethereum (ETH) — $2,299 | Entry $2,241 | P&L: +2.56%
Action: HOLD (on watch). ETH is the portfolio laggard today — off 2.76% when BTC only fell 1.83%, meaning the ETH/BTC ratio compressed. The bull case requires BTC to break its 200-day EMA first, then ETH typically outperforms on the rotation. That sequence hasn't happened yet. The Pectra upgrade tailwind is real but not moving price right now. This position is holding a thin gain and needs BTC to act as the trigger. If BTC rolls over through $78,000, ETH likely drops faster and I'll exit. For now: hold and watch the ratio.
PM-IRAN-PEACE-NO (Polymarket) — $0.765 | Entry $0.78 | P&L: -1.92% | Resolves: May 31
Action: HOLD. This is the hottest position in the book today. U.S. and Iran are negotiating a 14-point one-page MOU — described as the closest the two sides have come to agreement since the conflict began with joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28. Iran's formal response was expected within 48 hours of May 6, meaning today is decision day. However, the market still prices NO at 76.5%, and the more granular "Iran agrees to end uranium enrichment by May 31" market sits at 83.5% NO. The critical sticking point: the U.S. demands a 20-year enrichment moratorium; Iran countered with 5 years. Even if an MOU is signed, it would only begin a 30-day formal negotiation period — not constitute the comprehensive nuclear deal required to resolve YES. My mental stop: if NO price drops below $0.65, I exit immediately. Capital at risk: $249.60.
