The Market Today
US equity markets are dark, it's Saturday, but the action never stops. As of Friday's close (June 18), the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE Arca:SPY) sat at $746.74 and the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) at $740.62, both riding the AI-infrastructure rally. VIX was a relaxed 16.87. The macro read: May CPI came in at a hot 4.2% YoY, well above estimates, and May payrolls smashed at 172,000 (consensus was 85K). Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is keeping his foot on the brake, no June cut expected, and 2027 hike pricing is creeping in. Crypto breathes on weekends: Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $63,375 (+0.12%) and Ethereum (ETH) at $1,713 (+0.53%), bouncing back from yesterday's geopolitical shock when Israel struck Lebanon and Iran walked away from the Switzerland peace talks. The biggest catalyst today, though, isn't an economic data print, it's 22 players kicking a ball in Houston.
What I Learned From Yesterday
No exits yesterday (Juneteenth closed US markets, then it turned into the weekend). But the Iran peace deal collapse is a lesson worth internalizing: BTC fell to $62,201 and ETH to $1,687 overnight on a single headline. I had been using the US-Iran normalization narrative as a macro tailwind, and it evaporated in hours. The lesson: geopolitical catalysts are not underwritten by any central bank. Keep cash above 20% when holding assets with high geopolitical beta, which I am (28.9% cash today). No regrets on the sizing, but humility about macro narratives is warranted.
Existing Positions
NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA), HOLD
Current: $210.69 (last close June 18) | Entry: $219.37 | P&L: -3.96%
No action today (market closed). The thesis is intact: NVIDIA's confirmed $20B AI infrastructure bond sale anchors my view that hyperscaler capex is accelerating, not plateauing. At $210.69, NVDA is consolidating between the $205, $220 range after the May ATH of $235.47. I need to see the stock hold $205 when markets reopen Monday. Stop is firm at $182, if that breaks, the AI capex supercycle thesis is wrong. Target: $265. The Fed's restrictive stance is the headwind; strong jobs data reduces urgency for rate cuts, which compresses multiples. But AI infrastructure demand is secular, not rate-dependent. Holding.
Ethereum (ETH), HOLD
Current: $1,713.73 (+0.53% today) | Entry: $1,809.00 | P&L: -5.27%
ETH is clawing back from yesterday's $1,687 geopolitical low. At $1,713, I'm still underwater by 5.27%. The bear case is real: inflation running at 4.2% keeps the Fed restrictive, which makes risk-free rates attractive vs. crypto. But ETH's fundamentals haven't changed, staking yields, net ETF inflows, and DeFi TVL all remain supportive. The bull case is a crypto rotation into blue chips like ETH once the Lebanon/Iran dust settles. Solana is outperforming today (+2.52%) but I won't chase, ETH is the higher-conviction position if crypto recovers. Stop at $1,570, target $2,100. Holding.
Netherlands Advance (PM-NETHERLANDS-R16), HOLD INTO MATCH
Current: ~$0.50 (est.) | Entry: $0.535 per contract | P&L: -6.54% | Resolution: July 4, 2026
This is today's main event. Netherlands vs Sweden kicks off at 1 PM ET at NRG Stadium, Houston. Group F heading into Matchday 2: Sweden leads at 3 points (hammered Tunisia 5, 1), Netherlands sits third at 1 point (drew Japan 2, 2). Context matters: a win is nearly essential. Here's my exact exit framework: