AI Stock Picks Today: PLTR, NOW, NVDA Trade Ideas - July 28, 2026

Today's AI stock trade ideas: July 28, 2026

Semiconductor stocks are sliding for a second straight session as the Nasdaq loses 0.8pct and the SOXX chip ETF drops 2pct, pressured by reports that NVIDIA may backstop $250 billion in OpenAI financing and by signs that Chinese AI models are narrowing the gap with U.S. frontier software. Enterprise software is bucking the tape: Palantir, ServiceNow, and Salesforce are all up more than 6pct. The best setups today sit at that fault line. Scores below measure setup quality (Conviction 1-10), how quickly things could go wrong (Risk 1-10, higher is riskier), and a rough probability the idea works by that date.

1. Palantir (NYSE: PLTR): LONG

Palantir reports Q2 2026 earnings on August 3, six days away, and the options market is pricing a 15 pct swing in either direction, per FX Leaders. The setup leans bullish: the Defense Intelligence Agency reinstated a contested solicitation after Palantir's protest succeeded, AI software demand is accelerating across government and commercial segments, and management raised full-year free cash flow guidance to $4.2-$4.4 billion. Today's 7 pct gain puts the stock right at the 50-day moving average ($131.64). A daily close below $122 invalidates the trade; a move through $138 before earnings would confirm momentum.

2. ServiceNow (NYSE: NOW): LONG

ServiceNow delivered its strongest quarter in years on July 22, beating Q2 2026 EPS expectations by 18 pct ($0.90 reported vs. $0.76 expected) and growing subscription revenue 24 pct year over year to $3.99 billion, per the company's earnings press release. The stock is up nearly 7 pct today, continuing its post-earnings trend above both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. A pullback below $97 would be the stop; $120 is the primary target.

3. NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA): SHORT

NVIDIA is off 5 pct today after reports emerged that the company is in talks to backstop $250 billion in funding for an OpenAI data center project, reviving concerns about circular financing in the AI infrastructure ecosystem, per Yahoo Finance. Chinese AI models from Moonshot AI (Kimi K3) and DeepSeek are also said to be approaching frontier U.S. model quality at a fraction of the compute cost, raising doubts about long-term GPU demand. NVDA sits 3.4 pct below its 20-day moving average and 5.8 pct below the 50-day. A daily close back above $210 stops the short; $175 is the near-term target.

4. Salesforce (NYSE: CRM): LONG

Guggenheim analyst John DiFucci upgraded Salesforce to Buy on July 1 with a $228 price target, calling the AI bear case for enterprise software a "hallucination" and pointing to Agentforce reaching $1.2 billion in annual recurring revenue as evidence that the platform is winning AI business, per Gurufocus. The stock is up 6 pct today despite the chip selloff, and it is trading above both moving averages. A daily close below $162 stops the trade; $192 is the first upside target.

5. Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA): SHORT

Tesla's Q2 2026 earnings report last week revealed negative free cash flow of $1.09 billion, the first cash burn in two years, and results missed analyst consensus across the board, per Benzinga. The stock erased roughly $214 billion in market cap in a single session, the largest single-day decline since 2022. It now sits 22 pct below its 50-day moving average with the downtrend showing little sign of exhaustion. Bloomberg noted that short sellers have already collected about $4.3 billion in profit. A close above $330 stops the short; the downside target is $270.

More on the radar

• PLTR $135 calls (exp Aug 8): Options leverage on the August 3 earnings binary. The $135 strike carries 2,147 contracts of open interest; premium near $6.45. Maximum loss is the premium paid; potential gain is $16+ if Palantir posts a 15 pct up move.
• MSFT LONG: Microsoft reports earnings this week. AI cloud spending expected to accelerate. Stock held up today (+1.9 pct) while chips sold off. Entry $385-392, stop $375, target $410.
• ASML $1,600 puts (exp Aug 15): Chip rout continuation play. ASML is down 5.8 pct today on China competition fears. Strike and expiry chosen to capture near-term downside with defined risk.
• DELL LONG: AI server demand theme intact. DELL is 10.5 pct above its 50-day MA after a strong 5-day run (+12 pct). Entry $420-430, stop $405, target $460.
• SNOW LONG: Lowest realized volatility in the universe at 25 pct annualized. Up 20 pct over the past month, grinding above both moving averages. Slow-money momentum name. Entry $268-275, stop $258, target $295.

How we score these

Conviction (1-10): How clean the setup is, weighing technical positioning, momentum, and catalyst quality. A 7 or above means multiple factors align.

Risk (1-10): How quickly the trade can move against you. A 9 reflects earnings binaries, high implied volatility, or thin names. Size positions to match the risk score.

1-week and 1-month probabilities: Rough estimates that the idea is profitable by that date, based on current momentum and proximity to catalysts. Not a forecast and not a guarantee.

These are short-term trade ideas for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Trading stocks and options carries substantial risk of loss, including the total loss of capital. Probabilities and scores are estimates, not guarantees. Do your own research and size positions to your own risk tolerance.