Today's AI stock trade ideas: July 28, 2026
Semiconductor stocks are sliding for a second straight session as the Nasdaq loses 0.8pct and the SOXX chip ETF drops 2pct, pressured by reports that NVIDIA may backstop $250 billion in OpenAI financing and by signs that Chinese AI models are narrowing the gap with U.S. frontier software. Enterprise software is bucking the tape: Palantir, ServiceNow, and Salesforce are all up more than 6pct. The best setups today sit at that fault line. Scores below measure setup quality (Conviction 1-10), how quickly things could go wrong (Risk 1-10, higher is riskier), and a rough probability the idea works by that date.
| # | Ticker / Play | Type | Entry | Stop | Target | Conviction | Risk | 1wk | 1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PLTR | Stock Long | $130-133 | $122 | $152 | 8/10 | 7/10 | 55 pct | 62 pct |
| 2 | NOW | Stock Long | $104-107 | $97 | $120 | 8/10 | 4/10 | 60 pct | 68 pct |
| 3 | NVDA | Stock Short | $195-200 | $210 | $175 | 7/10 | 6/10 | 55 pct | 52 pct |
| 4 | CRM | Stock Long | $170-175 | $162 | $192 | 7/10 | 4/10 | 55 pct | 62 pct |
| 5 | TSLA | Stock Short | $308-315 | $330 | $270 | 7/10 | 5/10 | 58 pct | 55 pct |
| 6 | PLTR $135 calls (Aug 8) | Options | $6.00-6.50 | $3.00 | $16+ | 7/10 | 9/10 | 42 pct | n/a |
| 7 | MSFT | Stock Long | $385-392 | $375 | $410 | 6/10 | 4/10 | 52 pct | 58 pct |
| 8 | ASML $1,600 puts (Aug 15) | Options | $20-30 | $50 | $60+ | 6/10 | 7/10 | 48 pct | 50 pct |
| 9 | DELL | Stock Long | $420-430 | $405 | $460 | 5/10 | 6/10 | 48 pct | 52 pct |
| 10 | SNOW | Stock Long | $268-275 | $258 | $295 | 5/10 | 4/10 | 50 pct | 55 pct |
1. Palantir (NYSE: PLTR): LONG
Palantir reports Q2 2026 earnings on August 3, six days away, and the options market is pricing a 15 pct swing in either direction, per FX Leaders. The setup leans bullish: the Defense Intelligence Agency reinstated a contested solicitation after Palantir's protest succeeded, AI software demand is accelerating across government and commercial segments, and management raised full-year free cash flow guidance to $4.2-$4.4 billion. Today's 7 pct gain puts the stock right at the 50-day moving average ($131.64). A daily close below $122 invalidates the trade; a move through $138 before earnings would confirm momentum.
2. ServiceNow (NYSE: NOW): LONG
ServiceNow delivered its strongest quarter in years on July 22, beating Q2 2026 EPS expectations by 18 pct ($0.90 reported vs. $0.76 expected) and growing subscription revenue 24 pct year over year to $3.99 billion, per the company's earnings press release. The stock is up nearly 7 pct today, continuing its post-earnings trend above both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. A pullback below $97 would be the stop; $120 is the primary target.
3. NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA): SHORT
NVIDIA is off 5 pct today after reports emerged that the company is in talks to backstop $250 billion in funding for an OpenAI data center project, reviving concerns about circular financing in the AI infrastructure ecosystem, per Yahoo Finance. Chinese AI models from Moonshot AI (Kimi K3) and DeepSeek are also said to be approaching frontier U.S. model quality at a fraction of the compute cost, raising doubts about long-term GPU demand. NVDA sits 3.4 pct below its 20-day moving average and 5.8 pct below the 50-day. A daily close back above $210 stops the short; $175 is the near-term target.
4. Salesforce (NYSE: CRM): LONG
Guggenheim analyst John DiFucci upgraded Salesforce to Buy on July 1 with a $228 price target, calling the AI bear case for enterprise software a "hallucination" and pointing to Agentforce reaching $1.2 billion in annual recurring revenue as evidence that the platform is winning AI business, per Gurufocus. The stock is up 6 pct today despite the chip selloff, and it is trading above both moving averages. A daily close below $162 stops the trade; $192 is the first upside target.