AI IPO Race: Markets Track OpenAI vs. Anthropic

Last updated: July 2026

The race to the public markets between AI powerhouses OpenAI and Anthropic is capturing significant investor attention, as reflected in the latest Kalshi, All Markets data. A dedicated market for 'Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?' has seen over $314,000 in volume, with the market currently favoring Anthropic to IPO first (85% odds). This indicates a strong market conviction that a major AI player is nearing an initial public offering.

Update: AI IPO Race Heats Up in Mid-2026

Since this analysis was first published, the competitive dynamics between OpenAI and Anthropic have accelerated sharply. In May 2026, OpenAI filed a confidential draft registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, signaling its intent to pursue a public listing at a valuation above $1 trillion, with plans to raise at least $60 billion. Anthropic, meanwhile, has reportedly engaged Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs to advise on its own offering process. Some reports suggest OpenAI may ultimately delay its listing until 2027, leaving Anthropic a cleaner runway to the public markets.

The latest Kalshi prediction market data places Anthropic at 87% odds to IPO before OpenAI, a figure that has firmed since the OpenAI S-1 news emerged. Combined wagers on the "OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?" market now exceed $315,000, reflecting heightened institutional and retail conviction that a major AI listing is imminent.

What Reddit Users Say About the AI IPO Outlook

Across four recent threads spanning r/codex, r/AI_Agents, and r/technology, community sentiment on OpenAI's trajectory and the broader IPO landscape runs the full spectrum:

No, OpenAI is not doomed... Do they not realise the smartest people on earth are working on these technologies? Revenue grew 3.5x in a single year, that's crazy for any company." (r/codex, July 2026)

I don't think OpenAI and Anthropic will survive long term. After studying how Dropbox rose but still lost market dominance the parallels with AI are the same - these AI Labs long term won't make it." (r/AI_Agents, June 2026)

A $200 ChatGPT subscription could cost OpenAI $14,000 if you actually used it to its full potential." (r/technology, June 2026)

The pattern across these threads reflects a central investor tension: deep optimism about AI fundamentals (revenue growth, talent concentration) versus skepticism about whether current unit economics can support the public-market valuations being discussed.

AI & Tech Dominates Prediction Markets

The AI and Tech category is currently leading the pack in trading volume on the prediction market platform. This surge in activity highlights a broader trend of speculative interest in the future of artificial intelligence and its leading companies.

Beyond the OpenAI vs. Anthropic IPO question, other tech-related predictions are drawing substantial bets. The prospect of the USA being the next country to send humans to the Moon has amassed $78,000 in volume, with 59.9% odds. Blue Origin's potential to land on the moon before SpaceX has also seen significant action, with $89,000 traded and a 65% probability assigned to Blue Origin achieving this first.

Further down the list, SpaceX's ambitious Mars goals are being closely watched. The market for 'Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?' has seen $84,000 in volume, though the odds are currently stacked against it at 29% for 'Yes'. Similarly, the question of whether a humanoid robot will walk on Mars before a human does before 2035 has attracted $51,400 in trades.

Geopolitical and Space Bets

War & Geopolitics markets, while less dominant than AI, still show considerable interest. The question of 'Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?' has garnered $114,400 in volume. This prediction is part of a broader interest in space exploration, with related markets like Elon Musk's Mars ambitions attracting attention.

Geopolitical futures also remain a key area. The timing of Ukraine's presidential election is a significant point of speculation, with a market asking 'Will Ukraine hold a presidential election before Jan 1, 2027?' seeing $12,400 in volume, though the odds of it happening by then are low at 8%.

The potential for EU expansion is also on traders' minds, with the market 'Will any country join the EU by 2030?' showing $8,300 in volume and a strong 76% probability.

These prediction markets offer a unique, real-time glimpse into collective sentiment on future events across critical sectors.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will OpenAI go public in 2026?

OpenAI filed a confidential draft S-1 with the SEC in May 2026, targeting a $1 trillion+ valuation and plans to raise at least $60 billion. However, some reports suggest OpenAI may delay the listing until 2027, depending on market conditions and regulatory outcomes.

Is Anthropic likely to IPO before OpenAI?

Yes, according to current prediction markets. Kalshi currently prices Anthropic at roughly 87% odds to go public before OpenAI. Anthropic has reportedly hired Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs to advise on its IPO preparation.

How much has traded on the OpenAI vs. Anthropic IPO market?

Over $315,000 in combined volume has been wagered on Kalshi's "Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?" market, making it one of the platform's most active technology prediction markets.

What is OpenAI's target IPO valuation?

Reports from Reuters and Bloomberg cite OpenAI targeting a valuation above $1 trillion for its public offering. The company's most recent private funding round valued it at approximately $830 billion prior to the S-1 filing.

Why does the timing of an Anthropic or OpenAI IPO matter for AI investors?

Whichever company goes public first sets a public-market pricing benchmark for the AI sector, influencing how investors value AI capabilities, revenue growth rates, and compute cost structures across competing labs and applications.