AI Giants Eye Public Markets

Prediction markets show significant activity around potential IPOs for OpenAI and Anthropic, alongside bets on space exploration and geopolitical events.

Daniel Singer

Editor, StartupHub.ai

Jun 24 at 12:02 AM3 min read

Graph showing increasing trading volume on prediction markets. — Prediction markets are seeing increased activity across various sectors.

The race to the public markets for leading AI labs like OpenAI and Anthropic is a hot topic, with prediction markets reflecting strong investor interest. According to data from Kalshi, All Markets, traders are actively placing bets on which of these AI powerhouses will achieve an initial public offering first.

Currently, markets suggest a 76.0% chance that either OpenAI or Anthropic will IPO before 2040, with a substantial volume of $147.2K on the question of which will go public first. The market leans towards Anthropic making its debut first, with a 76.0% probability.

AI & Tech Predictions

Beyond the OpenAI Anthropic IPO speculation, the platform is buzzing with other forward-looking bets.

Traders are also weighing in on the future of space exploration. Markets show a 62.9% chance that the USA will be the next country to land humans on the Moon before 2031. There's also significant volume on whether Blue Origin will beat SpaceX to a lunar landing, with current odds favoring Blue Origin at 53.0%.

The question of human colonization on Mars is also attracting attention, with a 21.0% probability assigned to humans establishing a presence there before 2050.

Fusion energy timelines are also being bet upon, with markets reflecting divided sentiment on when this milestone will be reached.

Even the prospect of a nuclear-powered data center on a US military base before 2030 is being traded, indicating a broad spectrum of future technological and geopolitical events under scrutiny.

Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?, Trade on Kalshi

War & Geopolitics

In geopolitical arenas, the potential acquisition of Greenland by the US is a major focus. Markets show a staggering $2.7 million in volume for the question of US control over any part of Greenland before 2029.

Separately, traders are betting on the succession of Benjamin Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel, with markets open until 2045.

The long-term outlook for Elon Musk's Mars ambitions is also a subject of prediction, with a market set to resolve in 2099.

Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?, Trade on Kalshi

How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?, Trade on Kalshi

EU has a new member before 2030?, Trade on Kalshi

Delaware governor winner? (2028), Trade on Kalshi

Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?, Trade on Kalshi

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?, Trade on Kalshi

Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?, Trade on Kalshi

Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?, Trade on Kalshi

Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?, Trade on Kalshi

Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030?, Trade on Kalshi

When will nuclear fusion be achieved?, Trade on Kalshi

Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?, Trade on Kalshi

Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?, Trade on Kalshi

Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030?, Trade on Kalshi

Will the US take control of any part of Greenland?, Trade on Kalshi

How much will the US acquire Greenland for?, Trade on Kalshi

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#OpenAI #Anthropic #IPO #AI #Kalshi #Prediction Markets #SpaceX #Blue Origin #Mars #Greenland

Written by

Daniel Singer

Editor, StartupHub.ai

Daniel Singer is the editor of StartupHub.ai, a technology expert and thought leader on AI and its applications across sectors, from fintech and healthcare to developer tooling and consumer software. He writes and tests the tools covered here thoroughly and regularly, and built StartupHub.ai to give founders, operators and buyers a clearer read on what they are actually being sold.