SpaceX Stock Enters Critical Week: First Earnings August 4, Lockup Expiration August 6

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) closed at $108.37 on July 31, 2026, down more than 40% from its all-time high of $225.64 reached four days after its June IPO. This week brings the two most consequential events for shareholders since listing: the company's inaugural public earnings call on August 4 and a lockup expiration on August 6 that could release more than $100 billion in insider shares, according to The Motley Fool.

The stock priced at $135 per share on June 12 and closed its first day at $161, a 19% gain that capped the largest IPO in stock-market history, per CNBC. But the rally stalled quickly. Within weeks the stock had shed most of those gains and now trades just above its 52-week low of $107.01, according to Yahoo Finance, with volume of more than 58 million shares on July 31 alone.

What drove the decline

Three developments have pressured SPCX since its debut. First, shortly after listing SpaceX announced a $60 billion all-stock acquisition of AI coding platform Cursor. The all-stock structure diluted existing shareholders at an already elevated valuation, adding supply precisely when post-IPO momentum was fading, per FX Leaders. Second, a planned Starship launch on July 16 was aborted after multiple engine failures; a subsequent attempt succeeded but the rocket booster was lost on landing, reviving questions about program cadence. Third, several analysts have published notes arguing the current market capitalization of roughly $1.43 trillion is not yet supported by near-term earnings power.

Despite the selloff, the average 12-month price target among 28 analysts covering SPCX remains $236.71, with 27 of 28 maintaining buy ratings, according to Investing.com.

August 4: first earnings call

SpaceX will report its first quarterly results as a public company on August 4. Investors will receive official revenue figures, operating margins, Starlink subscriber counts, and management commentary on the Cursor integration. The report is the primary financial data point the market has lacked since listing, making it the most important single event for SPCX holders to date. Any guidance on the path to profitability at current valuation levels will likely move the stock.

August 6: lockup expiration

Two days after earnings, the first post-IPO lockup expires, freeing an estimated $100 billion or more in shares held by insiders, employees, and pre-IPO investors, according to The Motley Fool. Lockup expirations frequently coincide with near-term selling pressure as holders seek liquidity, though the effect varies widely depending on how many decide to sell and at what prices. The scale of this event, relative to SpaceX's roughly $1.43 trillion market cap, makes it one of the largest share unlocks in market history. Investors who acquired SPCX in the open market after the IPO are not subject to lockup restrictions and are unaffected directly.

The combination of a debut earnings release and a major supply event within 48 hours of each other is unusual and sets up the potential for elevated price volatility in either direction.

For full background on SpaceX's IPO, valuation history, and how to buy the stock, see our SpaceX stock hub. For the other major AI IPOs in progress, see the Anthropic IPO guide and the OpenAI IPO guide.

Not investment advice.