AI Stock Picks for August 20, 2026: NVDA, CRM, NOW and AVGO Trade Ideas

Today's AI stock trade ideas: August 20, 2026

Semiconductors are still the weak spot. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 2.2 pct today and is down nearly 6 pct over the past month, dragged by Broadcom (-4.6 pct), Lam Research (-6.3 pct), CrowdStrike (-5.3 pct), and Applied Materials (-3.5 pct). But software is staging a clean rotation: Salesforce jumped 5.1 pct and ServiceNow added 6.5 pct, both breaking to multi-month highs ahead of a packed August 26 earnings night. The S&P 500 edged up 0.21 pct to 7,708 and the Nasdaq rose 0.16 pct. Eight trade ideas below, ranked by conviction.

How to read the scores: Conviction is the strength of the setup (1-10, higher is stronger). Risk is the danger of a fast loss from binary events, high volatility, or counter-trend positioning (1-10, higher is more dangerous). The 1-week and 1-month percentages are rough probability estimates, not guarantees.

1. Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA): Long

Nvidia reports Q2 fiscal 2027 results on August 26 after the close. The analyst consensus sits at $91.8 billion in quarterly revenue, representing over 50 pct year-over-year growth fueled by Blackwell GPU shipments and data-center demand from hyperscalers. Goldman Sachs carries a $285 price target, implying roughly 30 pct upside from current levels (per Goldman Sachs, August 2026). The stock is holding 2.4 pct above its 20-day moving average despite semiconductor-sector pressure, a sign of relative strength. Options markets price in a 6.75 pct earnings move in either direction; the $230 call expiring August 29 sits near the top of the implied upside range and is the companion options play at idea #5. The thesis breaks down on a close below $205, which would represent a failure of the 20-day moving average and prior weekly support.

2. Salesforce (NYSE: CRM): Long

JPMorgan initiated an Overweight rating with a $250 price target on Salesforce, citing Agentforce - its autonomous AI agent framework - surpassing $1 billion in annual recurring revenue faster than guided (per JPMorgan, August 2026). CRM added 5.07 pct today and is up 21 pct over the past month as institutional money rotates into enterprise software ahead of Q2 FY2027 earnings, also due August 26. The stock is 9.7 pct above its 20-day moving average, so momentum is already extended; new entries should wait for $205-210. A close below $195 invalidates the breakout. Confirmation comes from a Q2 beat that shows Agentforce ARR acceleration.

3. ServiceNow (NYSE: NOW): Long

Wells Fargo raised its ServiceNow price target to $175 from $160 on August 17, following the company's Q2 earnings beat and a full-year subscription revenue guidance raise (per Wells Fargo, August 2026). ServiceNow's AI product ACV crossed $1 billion in the quarter, ahead of consensus. The stock is up 6.45 pct today and 24.63 pct over the past month, trading 9.1 pct above the 20-day moving average. The stop at $117 maps to the pre-earnings consolidation base; anything below there suggests the move has reversed. Target of $160 is roughly the Wells Fargo PT.

4. Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO): Short

Bank of America flagged $370 billion in potential financing exposure tied to Broadcom's custom AI accelerator leasing structure, raising balance-sheet risk concerns ahead of the September earnings report (per Bank of America, August 2026). AVGO fell 4.61 pct today and is down 12.88 pct over five days, sitting 8.96 pct below its 20-day moving average and 6.83 pct below the 50-day moving average. That is a technical structure that tends to attract more sellers than buyers. Stop at $382 is prior resistance. Cover into the high-$320s. The setup breaks down if Broadcom announces a debt restructuring or gets an analyst upgrade that pulls buyers back in.

5. Nvidia $230 calls, expiring August 29: Options

This is the leveraged companion to idea #1. NVDA at $217.56 needs a 5.7 pct move to reach $230, which sits inside the 6.75 pct upside implied by options markets for the August 26 earnings event. The August 29 expiry captures the reaction with one trading day of buffer after the report. Entry at $3-5 per contract; size small (this is a binary event with full-loss risk on a miss). Cut the position in half if the market sells off before the report; let it ride through earnings if the setup holds. Exit the day after the print regardless of direction.

More on the radar

TSLA (conviction 6): Q2 deliveries hit a record 480,126 units - up 25 pct year over year and well above the 402,776 consensus - and a three-year Swedish union dispute ended August 13 (per Reuters, August 2026). Tesla bounced 4.23 pct today. Entry $348-356, stop $328, target $388. Risk 7 because profitability is still pressured (EPS $0.33 vs. $0.47 consensus). AMAT (conviction 6): Applied Materials is down 12.1 pct over the past month and 11.5 pct below the 50-day MA as semiconductor equipment capex caution deepens. Entry $493-500, stop $516, target $462. INTC (conviction 5): Intel, the weakest large-cap chip name, is down 12 pct over the past month and 14.7 pct below its 50-day MA with no company-specific catalyst in sight. Entry $91-95, stop $102, target $78.

How we score these

Conviction (1-10): Reflects how clean and well-supported the setup is - a combination of technical positioning, a named catalyst, and the strength of the underlying data. A 9 means everything lines up; a 5 means it is worth watching but thin.

Risk (1-10): Reflects the speed and severity of a potential loss. High-risk scores mean the trade can go wrong fast - binary earnings events, elevated implied volatility, or counter-trend positioning. Size accordingly.

Probabilities: The 1-week and 1-month figures are rough estimates of the likelihood the idea works in that window. They are not mathematical calculations - treat them as a directional confidence gauge, not a return guarantee.

These are short-term trade ideas for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Trading stocks and options carries substantial risk of loss, including the total loss of capital. Probabilities and scores are estimates, not guarantees. Do your own research and size positions to your own risk tolerance.