SpaceX (Nasdaq: SPCX) fell 6.83% to $149.47 on July 7, 2026, despite joining the Nasdaq-100 index that same morning in what analysts had expected to drive a brief price surge from forced passive buying. Instead, selling pressure dominated as traders focused on a more immediate catalyst: SpaceX second-quarter earnings, due between mid-July and August, will trigger the first tranche of a phased lockup expiration that could release hundreds of millions of currently illiquid insider shares.
Trading volume in SPCX surged to more than 83 million shares on July 7, well above the stock typical daily average, reflecting the mechanical buying from Nasdaq-100 index trackers required to establish positions in the newly added component. QQQ, the largest Nasdaq-100 ETF by assets, added an estimated $4.3 billion in SPCX demand on its own, per Money Morning analysis, with total passive buying across all Nasdaq-100 and derivative products estimated in the $22-27 billion range.
Yet the stock still fell nearly 7%. The explanation lies in the supply picture.
The float problem
Only an estimated 3-5% of SpaceX total shares are currently available for public trading, per market analysis. The rest of the 7.57 billion shares outstanding are locked up under post-IPO agreements. SpaceX went public in June 2026 at $135 per share, implying a $1.8 trillion company valuation at the offering price, but the tiny float means even large passive inflows hit a shallow pool of available shares, making price impact unpredictable in both directions.
When SpaceX joined the Nasdaq-100, index funds needed to buy into a 3-5% public float. That concentrated buying temporarily absorbed substantial supply. But traders who had purchased SPCX in anticipation of the inclusion event, the standard "buy the rumor" setup, used the forced buying as an exit opportunity, effectively selling into the passive demand.