Kalshi, a prediction market platform, is tracking bets on who will become the next Prime Minister of Israel. The data offers a snapshot of market sentiment, though the long expiration dates suggest considerable future flux.
The leading candidate, according to current market activity, is Naftali Bennett, with a 36% probability of returning to the role. However, the odds reflect substantial uncertainty, with a 71% chance he will not.
Israel's Next Prime Minister: Market Odds
The market for the next Prime Minister of Israel is diverse, featuring a range of prominent political figures. Israel Katz holds a 12% chance, while figures like Itamar Ben-Gvir and Benny Gantz are given lower probabilities.
Other notable contenders and their current odds include Yariv Levin (5.9%), Gadi Eisenkot (17%), Yoav Gallant (12%), Bezalel Smotrich (1%), Yair Golan (4%), and former Prime Ministers Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett.
These predictions are based on trading volumes and market sentiment on the Kalshi — All Markets platform, which aggregates various prediction markets across different categories.
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