AI supercycle Enters Year One of a Ten-Year Run

The AI supercycle is only in year one of a ten-year run, suppliers told Bloomberg Technology at Semi Taiwan.

Buoyed by the continued AI buildout, the mood on the show floor was extremely bullish.

The full discussion can be found on Bloomberg Technology's YouTube channel.

Yet skepticism lingers. Chip cycles have always been boom and bust, and no one knows how long this one will last.

Phison and TSMC point to a long runway

Phison makes NAND flash controllers for data centers. Its projections and order book point to a decade of demand starting now.

TSMC, the world's largest fab, says its need for chipmaking tools has doubled since the end of last year, driven by steady orders from Nvidia and others.

Packaging capacity is the near-term constraint

GBTC, an advanced packaging firm in Taiwan, sees this supercycle lasting at least until 2030.

The company added a new factory. Even at 50% capacity, it cannot keep up with its order book.

Its biggest problem is people. GBTC has 200 open jobs it cannot fill.

Tools can be bought. Headcount cannot.