AI IPO Race: Markets Eye OpenAI, Anthropic

The race to the public markets for AI's leading contenders, OpenAI and Anthropic, is being closely watched, with prediction markets offering a glimpse into investor sentiment. Traders on Kalshi are placing significant volume on which of these generative AI titans will conduct an Initial Public Offering first.

The market is leaning towards OpenAI making its debut before Anthropic, though both are seen as eventual public entities. A substantial $69,000 has been traded on the question of whether OpenAI or Anthropic will IPO first, with the 'Yes' option for Anthropic IPOing first holding 83.0% odds, implying a strong belief that one or both will happen, but the specific market is structured around which comes first.

This bet, expiring in 2040, reflects a long-term outlook on the maturation of the AI industry. The total combined volume across active Kalshi prediction markets reached $19.7 million, indicating broad investor interest in future technological and geopolitical landscapes.

AI and Tech Markets Reflect Future Ambitions

Beyond the OpenAI Anthropic IPO speculation, other AI and tech-related markets highlight investor focus on ambitious long-term projects. A significant $69.7K is in play regarding which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon, with the US currently favored at 55.0% odds.

SpaceX's endeavors are also a hot topic. Markets are betting on whether the company will land anything on Mars before 2030 ($61.7K volume) and whether Blue Origin will land on the Moon before SpaceX ($63.3K volume).

The prospect of nuclear fusion achieving a breakthrough is also drawing capital, with over $42K traded across various markets predicting when this energy milestone might be reached.

Even more speculative bets are being placed, such as whether a humanoid robot will walk on Mars before a human does ($47.8K volume), and whether the US will build a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030 ($7.6K volume).

These markets, detailed on Kalshi, All Markets, serve as a fascinating, albeit speculative, barometer of where investors believe technological progress and major global events are headed.

July 2026 Update: Anthropic IPO Roadshow Nears

As of July 2026, Kalshi's IPO prediction markets have gained concrete backing: CNBC reported on July 15, 2026 that bankers leading Anthropic's IPO are actively scheduling meetings with prospective institutional investors. This pre-roadshow outreach follows Anthropic's confidential SEC S-1 filing submitted June 1, 2026, paired with a $65 billion Series H round at a $965 billion valuation.

OpenAI, whose IPO banking syndicate includes Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan, is also preparing for a potential late-2026 or 2027 listing. With both companies in active pre-IPO motion and competing for the same institutional capital pool, the Kalshi question of "which IPO comes first" has become sharply topical. A conventional U.S. IPO timeline would put Anthropic's public S-1 in August or September 2026, with pricing as early as October or November.

For a full breakdown of Anthropic's IPO timeline, valuation, and pre-IPO investment routes, see the Anthropic stock and IPO guide. For OpenAI, see the OpenAI IPO guide.

Frequently Asked Questions

When will Anthropic IPO?

Bankers are currently conducting pre-roadshow investor meetings, per CNBC (July 15, 2026). If the standard U.S. IPO timeline holds, a public S-1 filing could arrive in August or September 2026, with pricing potentially in October or November. Anthropic has not confirmed any specific dates.

Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

Prediction markets on Kalshi have this as a long-running bet. As of mid-2026, both companies are in active IPO preparation: Anthropic is in pre-roadshow investor meetings and OpenAI has Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan advising. The order remains uncertain; market odds fluctuate based on new filings and news.

What is Anthropic's IPO valuation?

Anthropic's most recent private valuation is $965 billion, set during its $65 billion Series H funding round completed June 1, 2026. This figure will be refined during the roadshow process based on institutional investor feedback.

How can retail investors access Anthropic stock before the IPO?

Retail investors cannot buy Anthropic shares before the IPO. Accredited investors may access secondary-market platforms such as Forge Global, EquityZen, or Hiive, which facilitate transfers from existing holders. Secondary prices may differ from the latest private-round valuation, and liquidity is limited.

Last updated: July 2026