AI Capex Slowdown Risks and China Tech Rebound

Thomas Thornton discusses record outflows from Korean equities, potential AI capex cuts, and the bright outlook for Chinese tech stocks.

Thomas Thornton speaking on a Bloomberg Businessweek Daily panel about market trends.
Bloomberg Podcast
Visual TL;DR
Gambler's MentalityContext
From the articleHe described a pervasive "gambler's mentality" in markets, including a surge in short-term options and leveraged ETFs, which he believes is becoming unsustainable.
Hedge Fund TelemetryCore
Thomas Thornton discusses market dynamics and future predictions
From the articleThomas Thornton, President of Hedge Fund Telemetry, discussed these market dynamics, highlighting the potential for a slowdown in AI capital expenditures.
Investor CautionDriver
From the article 2 mentionsInvestors are signaling a shift in sentiment, with record outflows from Korean equities in June and continued selling in July.
AI Capex SlowdownDriver
Thornton predicts cuts or flattening of AI capital expenditure growth
From the article 2 mentionsThomas Thornton, President of Hedge Fund Telemetry, discussed these market dynamics, highlighting the potential for a slowdown in AI capital expenditures.
Leveraged ETF DeclineOutcome
From the article 2 mentionsThornton pointed to the significant decline in leveraged semiconductor ETFs, such as the SKH two-time levered ETF, which has fallen 73% from its highs.
Shift in SentimentOutcome
investors signaling a broader caution creeping into markets
From the articleInvestors are signaling a shift in sentiment, with record outflows from Korean equities in June and continued selling in July.
China Tech ReboundEffect
bright outlook for Chinese tech stocks despite broader caution
From the articleHe noted that ETFs such as the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (NYSE:KWEB) and iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (NYSE:FXI) have seen significant rebounds after earlier declines.
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Investors are signaling a shift in sentiment, with record outflows from Korean equities in June and continued selling in July. This trend, noted by Bloomberg Intelligence, suggests a broader caution creeping into markets, particularly among those heavily invested in semiconductors and leveraged ETFs. Thomas Thornton, President of Hedge Fund Telemetry, discussed these market dynamics, highlighting the potential for a slowdown in AI capital expenditures.

StartupHub data

Companies working on this

Profiles of the companies named in this story, with founding year, headquarters, and a short description from our database.

Anthropic is an AI safety and research company building reliable, interpretable, and steerable AI systems, best known for the Claude family of models.

Founded
2021
Location
San Francisco, California, USA
Valuation
Private / $100B+ est

OpenAI is an AI research and deployment company dedicated to ensuring that artificial general intelligence benefits all of humanity.

Founded
2015
Location
San Francisco, United States
Valuation
Private / $100B+ est

Semiconductors market, from StartupHub data

Figures below are published StartupHub profiles tagged Semiconductors.

Semiconductors: notable companies in our database
CompanyWhat they doFunding / valuation
SolidigmA global provider of innovative NAND flash memory solutions and SSDs for data centers and AI workloads.$9.0B
NVIDIA CorpGlobal technology company renowned for its GPUs, SoCs, and APIs, driving advancements in AI, gaming, and high-performance computing.$4.1B
HuaweiGlobal leader in telecommunications equipment, consumer electronics, and digital solutions.$2.7B
LumentumSupplier of optical networking equipment and laser components.$2.0B
Arcline Investment ManagementA private equity firm focused on investing in and operating industrial businesses.$1.5B
Situational AwarenessAn AGI-focused hedge fund investing in AI infrastructure, power, and crypto mining.$1.5B

Investor Caution and AI Capex Concerns

Thornton pointed to the significant decline in leveraged semiconductor ETFs, such as the SKH two-time levered ETF, which has fallen 73% from its highs. He described a pervasive "gambler's mentality" in markets, including a surge in short-term options and leveraged ETFs, which he believes is becoming unsustainable. This cautious outlook extends to AI capital expenditure, with Thornton predicting that cuts or at least a flattening of growth are likely. He cited instances like Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META) leasing out compute power as a potential indicator that some advanced AI models may not be ready, or that companies are seeking to monetize unused resources amidst tightening cash flows.

The broader market context is also a concern. Thornton drew parallels to the tech bubble of 2000, where a leveling off of demand for telecom equipment preceded a market downturn. He believes that while AI has a longer growth path, similar disruptions could emerge. "It's not a matter of if, but a matter of when there's going to be capex cuts or perhaps just no growth given on the guidance," Thornton stated.

The full discussion can be found on Bloomberg Podcast's YouTube channel.

Short Bets Against US Equities Hit Record, AI Risks Rise - Bloomberg Podcast
Short Bets Against US Equities Hit Record, AI Risks Rise, from Bloomberg Podcast

China Tech's Resilience and AI's Future

Despite the cautious tone on global tech spending, Thornton expressed optimism regarding Chinese technology stocks. He noted that ETFs such as the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (NYSE:KWEB) and iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (NYSE:FXI) have seen significant rebounds after earlier declines. Thornton highlighted that companies like Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA) are actively investing in AI, cloud computing, and consumer AI applications, alongside their core businesses. He believes that China's potential stimulus measures and the development of open-source AI models could prove disruptive to US AI companies, especially if these models offer greater efficiency and lower costs.

"The AI models in the US are expensive. The token prices are still high for the major ones, Anthropic, OpenAI. And so if you have an alternative and it does the job, I think that's going to work," Thornton commented.

Short Bets and Sector Outlook

Beyond the broader market trends, Thornton revealed his short position against Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), citing three years of negative growth and aging vehicle models. He expressed concern over unfulfilled promises from the CEO regarding robo-taxis and the Optimus robot, questioning the company's ability to scale these ventures. "I think there's a long list of promises that haven't been kept from the CEO," he said.

In contrast, Thornton remains bullish on Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL), specifically due to its Gemini AI model's integration into Samsung phones and iPhones, which he sees as a significant driver for consumer adoption.

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Daniel Singer

Written by

Daniel Singer

Editor, StartupHub.ai

Daniel Singer is the editor of StartupHub.ai, a technology expert and thought leader on AI and its applications across sectors, from fintech and healthcare to developer tooling and consumer software. He writes and tests the tools covered here thoroughly and regularly, and built StartupHub.ai to give founders, operators and buyers a clearer read on what they are actually being sold.

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