SpaceX (SPCX) Surges 9.6% on Musk AI Revenue Comments

SpaceX shares rose more than 9.6% on August 12, 2026, after Elon Musk publicly stated that AI-related revenue at the company is on track to exceed all other SpaceX business lines as soon as next month, with artificial intelligence operations expected to dominate total SpaceX revenue by the fourth quarter of this year.

The stock, which trades on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, closed at $146.15, up from a prior close near $133, giving the company a market capitalization of roughly $1.93 trillion. Volume reached more than 165 million shares, reflecting heavy institutional and retail participation on the session.

What drove the move

The primary catalyst was Musk's on-record guidance that Grok, the large language model developed by xAI and trained on SpaceX's internal operational data, is scaling quickly enough to flip the company's revenue mix. Musk indicated that AI revenue would "definitely" outpace Starlink and launch services revenue within one to two months, and would be the dominant revenue driver by Q4 2026 (per Invezz, August 12, 2026).

The comments arrived at a technically strong moment. Shortly after the open on August 12, SPCX triggered a notable institutional inflow signal at a price of $138.39, with buy-side order flow shifting decisively in the stock's favor. Shares hit an intraday high of $148.79 during afternoon trading before closing at $146.15 (per Benzinga, August 12, 2026).

Morgan Stanley, which covers SPCX with an overweight rating, has separately noted substantial long-term valuation upside from AI services revenue layered on top of SpaceX's core launch and satellite businesses. Twenty-eight of thirty covering analysts currently rate the stock a buy (per Benzinga, August 2026).

Context: lock-up expiration and recovery

Today's gain extends a sharp recovery that began in the wake of SpaceX's first lock-up expiration on August 6, when approximately 911 million insider and employee shares became eligible for sale (per Forbes, August 2026). The widely anticipated sell pressure did not materialize at scale. Instead, the stock absorbed the unlock and has now gained more than 26% from its August 3 intraday low of $104.83 per share.

That low came after the company's Q2 2026 earnings raised investor concerns over elevated AI capital expenditure. However, the underlying results were strong: revenue of $7.8 billion in the quarter, up 92% year over year, with adjusted EBITDA up 191%, driven by Starlink subscriber additions and early AI services contributions (per 24/7 Wall St., August 2026). Musk's August 12 comments directly addressed the capex concern, providing a forward revenue trajectory that the market treated as reassuring.

SpaceX IPO background

SpaceX completed its IPO in June 2026 at $135 per share on the Nasdaq. The stock initially traded near the offering price before selling off in early August on capex concerns, hitting a low of $104.83 on August 3. The recovery since that low has pushed SPCX well above its IPO price, with today's close at $146.15 representing an approximately 8.3% gain from the $135 offer price.

What to watch next

• Q3 2026 earnings, expected in October or November, where AI and Starlink revenue will be reported separately for the first time
• Any interim Starlink subscriber count or average revenue per user disclosure
• Additional analyst coverage initiations now that the post-IPO lock-up period has passed
• Starship certification milestones, which carry separate commercial launch revenue implications

For the full SpaceX stock guide, including price history and how to buy SPCX shares, see our SpaceX stock hub. For related pre-IPO coverage, see the OpenAI IPO guide and Anthropic IPO guide. All IPO Watch coverage is at startuphub.ai/ai-news/ipo-watch.

Not investment advice.