Navigating the turbulent waters of AI adoption requires more than just technical prowess; it demands the strategic foresight and agility of a seasoned surfer. Grant Miller, a Distinguished Engineer at IBM, masterfully articulated this perspective in a recent video, drawing parallels between the historical "technology waves" that have reshaped society and the current, accelerating surge of artificial intelligence. His commentary offers a vital framework for founders, investors, and AI professionals grappling with the pace of innovation.
Miller anchored his discussion in the concept of technology waves, initially introduced by economist Joseph Schumpeter in 1942, which describe how disruptive innovations periodically sweep through economies. He outlined six such waves, each building upon the last to fundamentally alter how society and business operate. The first wave, the Industrial Revolution, introduced machines and water power, enabling faster production. Subsequent waves brought steam and electricity, then electronics and computers, each dramatically increasing the speed of manufacturing and the reach of information. The fifth wave, the internet, transformed connectivity, connecting 2.3 million people in 1990 to 3.4 billion by 2016, pushing information globally at near-instantaneous speeds.
The current, sixth wave, according to Miller, is AI, which began its ascent around 2020. This wave is not just about faster computation or better connectivity; it's about transforming the very nature of work by operating on information at unprecedented speeds. Within this broader AI wave, Miller identified distinct phases, starting with the early "birth" of AI concepts in the 1950s (pioneered by figures like Alan Turing), followed by a "winter" period where overhyped promises failed to materialize. The "modern AI" era saw a resurgence, driven by advancements in machine learning and data, exemplified by IBM Deep Blue’s chess victory in 1996 and the emergence of consumer-facing AI like Alexa and Siri.
