# Earnings to Test AI Trade as Bund Summit Opens

_Bloomberg Podcasts frames earnings as the test for the AI trade, with Natixis' Chetouane seeing overblown capex fears and Kaushik Basu warning the US-China AI race needs coordination._

**Published:** 2026-10-19
**Source:** https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/public-companies/2026/earnings-to-test-ai-trade-as-bund-summit-opens

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Earnings will decide whether the AI trade holds, [Bloomberg Podcasts](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BkPFHwJoJjQ) framed on Daybreak Asia as US equity futures tried to rebound from last week's chip-led slide.

Mabrouk Chetouane, head of global market strategy at Natixis Investment Managers, told Bloomberg Podcasts the market is not scared of the underlying equity direction but is fixated on one question. He argued the doubt now mirrors the early-2026 software selloff, only inverted, can Big Tech convert its massive capex into real revenues to cover the [us debt](https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/market-research/2026/ai-debt-big-tech-new-economic-order-debated) it has taken on, and he said the market is likely over-exaggerating the risk.

He dismissed the recent link between falling equities and rising yields as short-term noise.

  
    

![Earnings Put AI Trade to the Test, Bund Summit Begins | Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition - Bloomberg Podcast](https://img.youtube.com/vi/BkPFHwJoJjQ/maxresdefault.jpg)

    
      
        
      
    
  
  Earnings Put AI Trade to the Test, Bund Summit Begins | Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition, Bloomberg Podcast

Chetouane said real rates have risen on growth perceptions, not panic, pointing to Japan and the US where equities still held up, and noted the VIX has barely moved compared with implied volatility in bonds, a sign investors are not that scared of stocks. On the sidelines of the Bund Summit in Shanghai, Kaushik Basu, Cornell University professor and former World Bank chief economist, offered a darker read on fragility, telling Bloomberg Podcasts the cracks have appeared unusually fast amid war, supply chain disruptions and AI advancing at a very rapid rate. Basu likened the US-China AI race to the Cold War nuclear balance, arguing that a single dominant power once made use more likely and that only coordination between Washington and Beijing can prevent a global fiasco, a point he said leaders of [Anthropic](https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/artificial-intelligence/2026/anthropic-preps-for-blockbuster-ipo-aims-to-top-spacex) have also raised when calling to slow development.

That tension sets up this week's earnings as the referee. The [Nasdaq](https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/public-companies/2026/nasdaq-100-sinks-5-in-ai-led-selloff) fell about 5% last week, and the coming reports from Meta and major semiconductor makers will be parsed for AI infrastructure spending and whether it can sustain valuations, a test highlighted by Reuters and The Economic Times ahead of the prints ([The Economic Times](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/us-stocks/wall-street-guide/us-market-wall-streets-ai-rally-faces-test-as-meta-earnings-loom/articleshow/135039431.cms)).

Neither Chetouane nor Basu resolved the core conflict: markets want growth to justify capex, Basu wants coordinated restraint to manage it, and no one on the tape explained who blinks first if earnings disappoint.

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Original analysis from [startuphub.ai](https://www.startuphub.ai), the #1 AI startup directory.

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