# Prediction Market Arbitrage: 8 Opportunities Live Now, Up to 60.9% ROI _Our cross-venue engine has identified 8 live prediction market arbitrage opportunities today, August 16, 2026, offering guaranteed payouts by betting on both sides of the same event._ **Published:** 2026-08-16 **Source:** https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/prediction-market-arbitrage-8-opportunities-live-now-up-to-60-9-roi --- StartupHub.ai's proprietary cross-venue engine has surfaced 8 prediction market arbitrage opportunities as of August 16, 2026. These opportunities involve the same real-world event being priced on two different prediction market venues, such as Polymarket, Kalshi/Robinhood, or PredictIt, where buying a 'YES' contract on one venue and a 'NO' contract on the other costs less than $1 combined. This price discrepancy allows for a guaranteed payout, as one of the contracts is certain to resolve to $1. While our engine detected these 8 opportunities live, spreads can move rapidly, and other opportunities may have opened and closed within the last few hours. It is important to remember that this information is not financial advice, and factors like fees, KYC requirements, and withdrawal limits can impact actual returns. Arbitrage ROI by event. Will Trump recognize Somali...: ROI % 60.9. Who will leave Trump's Cabi...: ROI % 12.99. Where will Putin and Zelens...: ROI % 9.23. French presidential electio...: ROI % 7.35. Who will win the next Frenc...: ROI % 4.99. Who will leave Trump's Cabi...: ROI % 4.17. Cross-venue spreads on August 16, 2026. Source: StartupHub.ai arbitrage engine. **Live arbitrage right now** These update automatically. Tap a leg to open the venue. Not financial advice. - **Will Trump recognize Somaliland? :: During Trump's term**. Arbitrage: 60.9% ROI, locks 38c per $1. Buy YES on [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-recognize-somaliland-before-2027?via=startup-hub-ai) at 8c, buy NO on [Kalshi / Robinhood](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrecogsomali) at 54c. - **Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? Will Pete Hegseth be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet?**. Arbitrage: 13.0% ROI, locks 12c per $1. Buy YES on [Kalshi / Robinhood](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcabout) at 13c, buy NO on [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-leave-trump-administration-before-2027?via=startup-hub-ai) at 76c. - **Where will Putin and Zelenskyy next meet? Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Switzerland?**. Arbitrage: 9.2% ROI, locks 8c per $1. Buy YES on [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-zelenskyy-and-putin-meet-next?via=startup-hub-ai) at 3c, buy NO on [Kalshi / Robinhood](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxputinzelenskyylocation) at 89c. - **French presidential election: who will advance? Will François Hollande qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?**. Arbitrage: 7.4% ROI, locks 7c per $1. Buy YES on [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election?via=startup-hub-ai) at 0c, buy NO on [Kalshi / Robinhood](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfrpresadvance) at 93c. - **Who will win the next French presidential election?, Gérald Darmanin**. Arbitrage: 5.0% ROI, locks 5c per $1. Buy YES on [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election?via=startup-hub-ai) at 0c, buy NO on [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8766/Who-will-win-the-next-French-presidential-election) at 95c. - **Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? Will Markwayne Mullin be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet?**. Arbitrage: 4.2% ROI, locks 4c per $1. Buy YES on [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8850/Who-will-be-the-next-Cabinet-member-to-leave-office) at 12c, buy NO on [Kalshi / Robinhood](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcabout) at 84c. - **Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? Will Doug Collins be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet?**. Arbitrage: 4.2% ROI, locks 4c per $1. Buy YES on [Kalshi / Robinhood](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcabout) at 3c, buy NO on [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8850/Who-will-be-the-next-Cabinet-member-to-leave-office) at 93c. - **Where will Putin and Zelenskyy next meet? Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Ukraine?**. Arbitrage: 3.8% ROI, locks 4c per $1. Buy YES on [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-zelenskyy-and-putin-meet-next?via=startup-hub-ai) at 0c, buy NO on [Kalshi / Robinhood](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxputinzelenskyylocation) at 96c. [See the full live arbitrage board](https://www.startuphub.ai/arbitrage) or poll the free [JSON API](https://www.startuphub.ai/api/v1/arbitrage). ## Track these live, or poll the free API The board above refreshes on its own, so this page stays current long after today. The full cross-venue feed lives on the [arbitrage board](https://www.startuphub.ai/arbitrage), and every match is also a free JSON API and an MCP tool, so a trading agent can poll live Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt arbitrage opportunities and act on them. ``` curl https://www.startuphub.ai/api/v1/arbitrage?arbs_only=1 ``` [Read the arbitrage API reference](https://www.startuphub.ai/api-docs/reference/arbitrage) or open the [live JSON endpoint](https://www.startuphub.ai/api/v1/arbitrage). Focused guides: [Polymarket arbitrage](https://www.startuphub.ai/arbitrage/polymarket), [Kalshi arbitrage](https://www.startuphub.ai/arbitrage/kalshi), and the [arbitrage bot API](https://www.startuphub.ai/arbitrage/bot). *Informational feed, not financial advice. Live arbitrages are often fleeting, and fees, gas, KYC and withdrawal limits eat into the spread. Verify each market’s resolution rules and costs before trading.* --- Original analysis from [startuphub.ai](https://www.startuphub.ai), the #1 AI startup directory.