# Prediction Market Arbitrage: 4 Live Opportunities on Newsom, Shapiro, Emanuel, Kelly (July 12, 2026) _Our cross-venue engine detected 5 prediction market arbitrage opportunities today, July 12, 2026. Four are currently live, offering guaranteed payouts on 2028 US election events._ **Published:** 2026-07-12 **Source:** https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/prediction-market-arbitrage-4-live-opportunities-on-newsom-shapiro-emanuel-kelly-july-12-2026 --- Today, July 12, 2026, StartupHub.ai's cross-venue engine identified five prediction market arbitrage opportunities across Polymarket, Kalshi/Robinhood, and PredictIt. An arbitrage lock occurs when buying a 'YES' contract on one venue and a 'NO' contract on another for the same real-world event totals less than $1, guaranteeing a profit regardless of the outcome. Four of these spreads are live right now, offering immediate opportunities for those quick enough to act. One additional opportunity was seen earlier and may have already closed, as spreads on these volatile markets can move very quickly. Please remember, this is not financial advice. Transaction fees, KYC processes, and withdrawal limits can impact actual returns. Arbitrage ROI by event. Who will win the 2028 US pr...: ROI % 4.44. 2028 Democratic VP nominee...: ROI % 4.06. 2028 Democratic presidentia...: ROI % 3.36. 2028 Democratic presidentia...: ROI % 3.15. 2028 Democratic presidentia...: ROI % 2.04. Cross-venue spreads on July 12, 2026. Source: StartupHub.ai arbitrage engine. **Live arbitrage right now** These update automatically. Tap a leg to open the venue. Not financial advice. - **Who will win the 2028 US presidential election?, Gavin Newsom**. Arbitrage: 4.4% ROI, locks 4c per $1. Buy YES on [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/will-gavin-newsom-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election) at 12c, buy NO on [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8171/Who-will-win-the-2028-US-presidential-election) at 84c. - **2028 Democratic VP nominee Will Josh Shapiro be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?**. Arbitrage: 4.1% ROI, locks 4c per $1. Buy YES on [Kalshi / Robinhood](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxvpresnomd) at 4c, buy NO on [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8799/Who-will-win-the-2028-Democratic-vice-presidential-nomination) at 92c. - **2028 Democratic presidential nominee Will Rahm Emanuel be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?**. Arbitrage: 3.4% ROI, locks 3c per $1. Buy YES on [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/will-rahm-emanuel-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-299) at 2c, buy NO on [Kalshi / Robinhood](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresnomd) at 95c. - **2028 Democratic presidential nominee Will Mark Kelly be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?**. Arbitrage: 3.1% ROI, locks 3c per $1. Buy YES on [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/will-mark-kelly-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-479) at 1c, buy NO on [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8153/Who-will-win-the-2028-Democratic-presidential-nomination) at 96c. - **2028 Democratic presidential nominee Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?**. Combined cost 98c (no lock right now). Buy YES on [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8153/Who-will-win-the-2028-Democratic-presidential-nomination) at 13c, buy NO on [Kalshi / Robinhood](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresnomd) at 85c. [See the full live arbitrage board](https://www.startuphub.ai/arbitrage) or poll the free [JSON API](https://www.startuphub.ai/api/v1/arbitrage). ## Track these live, or poll the free API The board above refreshes on its own, so this page stays current long after today. The full cross-venue feed lives on the [arbitrage board](https://www.startuphub.ai/arbitrage), and every match is also a free JSON API and an MCP tool, so a trading agent can poll live Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt arbitrage opportunities and act on them. ``` curl https://www.startuphub.ai/api/v1/arbitrage?arbs_only=1 ``` [Read the arbitrage API reference](https://www.startuphub.ai/api-docs/reference/arbitrage) or open the [live JSON endpoint](https://www.startuphub.ai/api/v1/arbitrage). *Informational feed, not financial advice. Live arbitrages are often fleeting, and fees, gas, KYC and withdrawal limits eat into the spread. Verify each market’s resolution rules and costs before trading.* --- Original analysis from [startuphub.ai](https://www.startuphub.ai), the #1 AI startup directory. © StartupHub.ai. All rights reserved. You may not republish this article in full without a license. Search engines and AI research tools may crawl and summarize for reference. Bulk reproduction or model training on this content requires a license. See https://www.startuphub.ai/terms.