# Prediction Market Arbitrage: 12 Live Opportunities Surfaced Today _Our cross-venue engine identified 15 prediction market arbitrage opportunities today, with 12 currently live, allowing for guaranteed payouts._ **Published:** 2026-08-08 **Source:** https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/prediction-market-arbitrage-12-live-opportunities-surfaced-today --- StartupHub.ai's proprietary cross-venue engine has surfaced 15 prediction market arbitrage opportunities as of August 8, 2026. These opportunities involve the same real-world event being priced on two different venues, such as Polymarket, Kalshi/Robinhood, or PredictIt, where buying a 'YES' contract on one venue and a 'NO' contract on the other totals less than $1. This allows for a guaranteed payout, as one of the contracts is certain to resolve to $1. Twelve of these arbitrage opportunities are live right now, offering immediate potential for profit. The remaining three were observed earlier today and may have already closed, as spreads on prediction markets can move very quickly. It is crucial to remember that this information is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Spreads can close fast, and transaction fees, KYC requirements, and withdrawal limits can impact actual returns. Arbitrage ROI by event. Will Trump recognize Somali...: ROI % 59.36. Where will Putin and Zelens...: ROI % 16.21. French presidential electio...: ROI % 7.35. Who will leave Trump's Cabi...: ROI % 6.38. Who will leave Trump's Cabi...: ROI % 6.38. 2028 Democratic VP nominee...: ROI % 5.49. Cross-venue spreads on August 8, 2026. Source: StartupHub.ai arbitrage engine. **Live arbitrage right now** These update automatically. Tap a leg to open the venue. Not financial advice. - **Will Trump recognize Somaliland? :: During Trump's term**. Arbitrage: 59.4% ROI, locks 37c per $1. Buy YES on [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-recognize-somaliland-before-2027?via=startup-hub-ai) at 8c, buy NO on [Kalshi / Robinhood](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrecogsomali) at 55c. - **Where will Putin and Zelenskyy next meet? Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Switzerland?**. Arbitrage: 16.2% ROI, locks 14c per $1. Buy YES on [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-zelenskyy-and-putin-meet-next?via=startup-hub-ai) at 3c, buy NO on [Kalshi / Robinhood](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxputinzelenskyylocation) at 83c. - **French presidential election: who will advance? Will François Hollande qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?**. Arbitrage: 7.4% ROI, locks 7c per $1. Buy YES on [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election?via=startup-hub-ai) at 0c, buy NO on [Kalshi / Robinhood](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfrpresadvance) at 93c. - **Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? Will Chris Wright be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet?**. Arbitrage: 6.4% ROI, locks 6c per $1. Buy YES on [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8850/Who-will-be-the-next-Cabinet-member-to-leave-office) at 9c, buy NO on [Kalshi / Robinhood](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcabout) at 85c. - **Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? Will Pete Hegseth be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet?**. Arbitrage: 6.4% ROI, locks 6c per $1. Buy YES on [Kalshi / Robinhood](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcabout) at 13c, buy NO on [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-leave-trump-administration-before-2027?via=startup-hub-ai) at 81c. - **2028 Democratic VP nominee Will Josh Shapiro be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?**. Arbitrage: 5.5% ROI, locks 5c per $1. Buy YES on [Kalshi / Robinhood](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxvpresnomd) at 4c, buy NO on [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8799/Who-will-win-the-2028-Democratic-vice-presidential-nomination) at 91c. - **Who will win the next French presidential election?, Gérald Darmanin**. Arbitrage: 4.9% ROI, locks 5c per $1. Buy YES on [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election?via=startup-hub-ai) at 0c, buy NO on [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8766/Who-will-win-the-next-French-presidential-election) at 95c. - **Who will be elected Los Angeles mayor in 2026?, Karen Bass**. Arbitrage: 4.7% ROI, locks 4c per $1. Buy YES on [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8370/Who-will-be-elected-Los-Angeles-mayor-in-2026) at 62c, buy NO on [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/los-angeles-mayoral-election-117?via=startup-hub-ai) at 34c. - **Who will be elected Los Angeles mayor in 2026?, Nithya Raman**. Arbitrage: 4.1% ROI, locks 4c per $1. Buy YES on [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/los-angeles-mayoral-election-117?via=startup-hub-ai) at 33c, buy NO on [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8370/Who-will-be-elected-Los-Angeles-mayor-in-2026) at 63c. - **Where will Putin and Zelenskyy next meet? Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Ukraine?**. Arbitrage: 3.8% ROI, locks 4c per $1. Buy YES on [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-zelenskyy-and-putin-meet-next?via=startup-hub-ai) at 0c, buy NO on [Kalshi / Robinhood](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxputinzelenskyylocation) at 96c. [See the full live arbitrage board](https://www.startuphub.ai/arbitrage) or poll the free [JSON API](https://www.startuphub.ai/api/v1/arbitrage). ## Track these live, or poll the free API The board above refreshes on its own, so this page stays current long after today. The full cross-venue feed lives on the [arbitrage board](https://www.startuphub.ai/arbitrage), and every match is also a free JSON API and an MCP tool, so a trading agent can poll live Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt arbitrage opportunities and act on them. ``` curl https://www.startuphub.ai/api/v1/arbitrage?arbs_only=1 ``` [Read the arbitrage API reference](https://www.startuphub.ai/api-docs/reference/arbitrage) or open the [live JSON endpoint](https://www.startuphub.ai/api/v1/arbitrage). Focused guides: [Polymarket arbitrage](https://www.startuphub.ai/arbitrage/polymarket), [Kalshi arbitrage](https://www.startuphub.ai/arbitrage/kalshi), and the [arbitrage bot API](https://www.startuphub.ai/arbitrage/bot). *Informational feed, not financial advice. Live arbitrages are often fleeting, and fees, gas, KYC and withdrawal limits eat into the spread. Verify each market’s resolution rules and costs before trading.* --- Original analysis from [startuphub.ai](https://www.startuphub.ai), the #1 AI startup directory. © StartupHub.ai. All rights reserved. You may not republish this article in full without a license. Search engines and AI research tools may crawl and summarize for reference. Bulk reproduction or model training on this content requires a license. See https://www.startuphub.ai/terms.