# Prediction Market Arbitrage: 10 Live Opportunities Identified Today, August 9, 2026 _Our cross-venue engine has identified 10 live prediction market arbitrage opportunities today, August 9, 2026, offering guaranteed payouts for savvy traders._ **Published:** 2026-08-09 **Source:** https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/prediction-market-arbitrage-10-live-opportunities-identified-today-august-9-2026 --- For newcomers, a prediction market arbitrage lock occurs when buying a 'YES' contract on one venue and a 'NO' contract for the same real-world event on another venue costs less than $1 combined, guaranteeing a profit regardless of the outcome. StartupHub.ai's proprietary cross-venue engine has surfaced 10 such live opportunities as of August 9, 2026. These spreads, spanning Polymarket, Kalshi/Robinhood, and PredictIt, offer varying returns by exploiting temporary pricing inefficiencies. Arbitrage ROI by event. Will Trump recognize Somali...: ROI % 61.68. Where will Putin and Zelens...: ROI % 16.21. French presidential electio...: ROI % 7.35. Who will leave Trump's Cabi...: ROI % 6.38. Who will win the next Frenc...: ROI % 4.99. Who will be elected Los Ang...: ROI % 4.71. Cross-venue spreads on August 9, 2026. Source: StartupHub.ai arbitrage engine. **Live arbitrage right now** These update automatically. Tap a leg to open the venue. Not financial advice. - **Will Trump recognize Somaliland? :: During Trump's term**. Arbitrage: 61.7% ROI, locks 38c per $1. Buy YES on [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-recognize-somaliland-before-2027?via=startup-hub-ai) at 8c, buy NO on [Kalshi / Robinhood](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrecogsomali) at 54c. - **Where will Putin and Zelenskyy next meet? Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Switzerland?**. Arbitrage: 16.2% ROI, locks 14c per $1. Buy YES on [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-zelenskyy-and-putin-meet-next?via=startup-hub-ai) at 3c, buy NO on [Kalshi / Robinhood](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxputinzelenskyylocation) at 83c. - **French presidential election: who will advance? Will François Hollande qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?**. Arbitrage: 7.4% ROI, locks 7c per $1. Buy YES on [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election?via=startup-hub-ai) at 0c, buy NO on [Kalshi / Robinhood](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfrpresadvance) at 93c. - **Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? Will Chris Wright be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet?**. Arbitrage: 6.4% ROI, locks 6c per $1. Buy YES on [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8850/Who-will-be-the-next-Cabinet-member-to-leave-office) at 9c, buy NO on [Kalshi / Robinhood](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcabout) at 85c. - **Who will win the next French presidential election?, Gérald Darmanin**. Arbitrage: 5.0% ROI, locks 5c per $1. Buy YES on [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election?via=startup-hub-ai) at 0c, buy NO on [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8766/Who-will-win-the-next-French-presidential-election) at 95c. - **Who will be elected Los Angeles mayor in 2026?, Karen Bass**. Arbitrage: 4.7% ROI, locks 4c per $1. Buy YES on [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8370/Who-will-be-elected-Los-Angeles-mayor-in-2026) at 62c, buy NO on [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/los-angeles-mayoral-election-117?via=startup-hub-ai) at 34c. - **Where will Putin and Zelenskyy next meet? Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Ukraine?**. Arbitrage: 4.0% ROI, locks 4c per $1. Buy YES on [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-zelenskyy-and-putin-meet-next?via=startup-hub-ai) at 0c, buy NO on [Kalshi / Robinhood](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxputinzelenskyylocation) at 96c. - **Who will be elected Los Angeles mayor in 2026?, Nithya Raman**. Arbitrage: 3.6% ROI, locks 3c per $1. Buy YES on [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/los-angeles-mayoral-election-117?via=startup-hub-ai) at 34c, buy NO on [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8370/Who-will-be-elected-Los-Angeles-mayor-in-2026) at 63c. - **2028 Democratic presidential nominee Will Mark Kelly be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?**. Arbitrage: 3.3% ROI, locks 3c per $1. Buy YES on [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028?via=startup-hub-ai) at 3c, buy NO on [Kalshi / Robinhood](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresnomd) at 94c. - **Who will win the 2028 US presidential election?, Gavin Newsom**. Arbitrage: 3.3% ROI, locks 3c per $1. Buy YES on [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2028?via=startup-hub-ai) at 10c, buy NO on [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8171/Who-will-win-the-2028-US-presidential-election) at 87c. [See the full live arbitrage board](https://www.startuphub.ai/arbitrage) or poll the free [JSON API](https://www.startuphub.ai/api/v1/arbitrage). ## Track these live, or poll the free API The board above refreshes on its own, so this page stays current long after today. The full cross-venue feed lives on the [arbitrage board](https://www.startuphub.ai/arbitrage), and every match is also a free JSON API and an MCP tool, so a trading agent can poll live Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt arbitrage opportunities and act on them. ``` curl https://www.startuphub.ai/api/v1/arbitrage?arbs_only=1 ``` [Read the arbitrage API reference](https://www.startuphub.ai/api-docs/reference/arbitrage) or open the [live JSON endpoint](https://www.startuphub.ai/api/v1/arbitrage). Focused guides: [Polymarket arbitrage](https://www.startuphub.ai/arbitrage/polymarket), [Kalshi arbitrage](https://www.startuphub.ai/arbitrage/kalshi), and the [arbitrage bot API](https://www.startuphub.ai/arbitrage/bot). *Informational feed, not financial advice. Live arbitrages are often fleeting, and fees, gas, KYC and withdrawal limits eat into the spread. Verify each market’s resolution rules and costs before trading.* --- Original analysis from [startuphub.ai](https://www.startuphub.ai), the #1 AI startup directory. © StartupHub.ai. All rights reserved. You may not republish this article in full without a license. Search engines and AI research tools may crawl and summarize for reference. Bulk reproduction or model training on this content requires a license. See https://www.startuphub.ai/terms.