# Prediction Market Arbitrage: 10 Live Opportunities Identified Today, August 22, 2026 _Our cross-venue engine has identified 10 live prediction market arbitrage opportunities today, August 22, 2026, offering guaranteed payouts by buying YES on one venue and NO on another for under $1._ **Published:** 2026-08-22 **Source:** https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/prediction-market-arbitrage-10-live-opportunities-identified-today-august-22-2026 --- StartupHub.ai's proprietary cross-venue engine has surfaced 10 live prediction market arbitrage opportunities as of August 22, 2026. These opportunities involve buying 'YES' on one platform and 'NO' on another for the same real-world event, with the combined cost totaling less than $1. This strategy, known as an arbitrage lock, guarantees a payout of the difference per dollar invested, regardless of the event's outcome. For newcomers, an arbitrage lock occurs when you can buy a 'YES' contract on one market and a 'NO' contract on another for the same event, and their combined price is less than $1, guaranteeing a profit. While our engine identified these 10 opportunities as live, spreads can move very quickly. Potential profits can also be impacted by fees, KYC requirements, and withdrawal limits on the respective platforms. Arbitrage ROI by event. Will Trump recognize Somali...: ROI % 57.98. Where will Putin and Zelens...: ROI % 22.62. Who will leave Trump's Cabi...: ROI % 14.29. French presidential electio...: ROI % 7.35. Who will leave Trump's Cabi...: ROI % 5.26. Who will win the next Frenc...: ROI % 5.1. Cross-venue spreads on August 22, 2026. Source: StartupHub.ai arbitrage engine. **Live arbitrage right now** These update automatically. Tap a leg to open the venue. Not financial advice. - **Will Trump recognize Somaliland? :: During Trump's term**. Arbitrage: 58.0% ROI, locks 37c per $1. Buy YES on [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-recognize-somaliland-before-2027?via=startup-hub-ai) at 8c, buy NO on [Kalshi / Robinhood](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrecogsomali) at 55c. - **Where will Putin and Zelenskyy next meet? Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Switzerland?**. Arbitrage: 22.6% ROI, locks 18c per $1. Buy YES on [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-zelenskyy-and-putin-meet-next?via=startup-hub-ai) at 1c, buy NO on [Kalshi / Robinhood](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxputinzelenskyylocation) at 81c. - **Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? Will Pete Hegseth be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet?**. Arbitrage: 14.3% ROI, locks 13c per $1. Buy YES on [Kalshi / Robinhood](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcabout) at 12c, buy NO on [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-leave-trump-administration-before-2027?via=startup-hub-ai) at 76c. - **French presidential election: who will advance? Will François Hollande qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?**. Arbitrage: 7.4% ROI, locks 7c per $1. Buy YES on [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election?via=startup-hub-ai) at 0c, buy NO on [Kalshi / Robinhood](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfrpresadvance) at 93c. - **Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? Will Chris Wright be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet?**. Arbitrage: 5.3% ROI, locks 5c per $1. Buy YES on [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8850/Who-will-be-the-next-Cabinet-member-to-leave-office) at 9c, buy NO on [Kalshi / Robinhood](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcabout) at 86c. - **Who will win the next French presidential election?, Gérald Darmanin**. Arbitrage: 5.1% ROI, locks 5c per $1. Buy YES on [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election?via=startup-hub-ai) at 0c, buy NO on [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8766/Who-will-win-the-next-French-presidential-election) at 95c. - **Where will Putin and Zelenskyy next meet? Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Ukraine?**. Arbitrage: 3.9% ROI, locks 4c per $1. Buy YES on [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-zelenskyy-and-putin-meet-next?via=startup-hub-ai) at 0c, buy NO on [Kalshi / Robinhood](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxputinzelenskyylocation) at 96c. - **Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?, Jon Ossoff**. Arbitrage: 3.3% ROI, locks 3c per $1. Buy YES on [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028?via=startup-hub-ai) at 15c, buy NO on [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8153/Who-will-win-the-2028-Democratic-presidential-nomination) at 82c. - **Who will be the next Supreme Court justice? Will Aileen Cannon become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?**. Arbitrage: 3.1% ROI, locks 3c per $1. Buy YES on [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8246/Who-will-be-the-next-Supreme-Court-nominee) at 7c, buy NO on [Kalshi / Robinhood](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxscourt) at 90c. - **Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? Will Doug Collins be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet?**. Arbitrage: 3.1% ROI, locks 3c per $1. Buy YES on [Kalshi / Robinhood](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcabout) at 3c, buy NO on [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8850/Who-will-be-the-next-Cabinet-member-to-leave-office) at 94c. [See the full live arbitrage board](https://www.startuphub.ai/arbitrage) or poll the free [JSON API](https://www.startuphub.ai/api/v1/arbitrage). ## Track these live, or poll the free API The board above refreshes on its own, so this page stays current long after today. The full cross-venue feed lives on the [arbitrage board](https://www.startuphub.ai/arbitrage), and every match is also a free JSON API and an MCP tool, so a trading agent can poll live Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt arbitrage opportunities and act on them. ``` curl https://www.startuphub.ai/api/v1/arbitrage?arbs_only=1 ``` [Read the arbitrage API reference](https://www.startuphub.ai/api-docs/reference/arbitrage) or open the [live JSON endpoint](https://www.startuphub.ai/api/v1/arbitrage). Focused guides: [Polymarket arbitrage](https://www.startuphub.ai/arbitrage/polymarket), [Kalshi arbitrage](https://www.startuphub.ai/arbitrage/kalshi), and the [arbitrage bot API](https://www.startuphub.ai/arbitrage/bot). *Informational feed, not financial advice. Live arbitrages are often fleeting, and fees, gas, KYC and withdrawal limits eat into the spread. Verify each market’s resolution rules and costs before trading.* --- Original analysis from [startuphub.ai](https://www.startuphub.ai), the #1 AI startup directory. © StartupHub.ai. All rights reserved. You may not republish this article in full without a license. Search engines and AI research tools may crawl and summarize for reference. Bulk reproduction or model training on this content requires a license. See https://www.startuphub.ai/terms.