# OpenAI vs. Anthropic: The IPO Race Heats Up
_Prediction markets indicate Anthropic is more likely to IPO before OpenAI, with a 76% probability on Kalshi._
**Published:** 2026-06-25
**Source:** https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/openai-vs-anthropic-the-ipo-race-heats-up
---
The race for an [OpenAI Anthropic IPO](https://kalshi.com/markets?digest=2026-06-25) is intensifying, with prediction markets offering a glimpse into investor sentiment. According to Kalshi, a platform for event-based trading, the market currently leans towards Anthropic making its public debut before OpenAI.

IPO Race Heats UpDriver

From the articleThe race for an OpenAI Anthropic IPO is intensifying, with prediction markets offering a glimpse into investor sentiment.Anthropic's StrengthsCorestrategic partnerships and rapid Claude model developmentFrom the article 6 mentionsAccording to Kalshi, a platform for event-based trading, the market currently leans towards Anthropic making its public debut before OpenAI.indicatesPrediction MarketsContextinvestor sentiment tracked on Kalshi platformFrom the article 4 mentionsThe prediction market suggests a belief that Anthropic may be better positioned for an earlier public offering.showsAnthropic IPO LikelihoodOutcomeFrom the article 3 mentionsKalshi's data shows that traders are assigning a 76% probability to Anthropic being the first to IPO, compared to OpenAI's 27%.OpenAI IPO LikelihoodOutcome27% probability assigned by traders on KalshiFrom the article 3 mentionsWill OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?, Trade on KalshidrivesMarket InterestEffectFrom the article 4 mentionsThis market, tracking an IPO before 2040, has generated a combined trading volume of $279.7K, indicating considerable interest in the future of these AI giants.

## The Prediction Market Snapshot

Kalshi's data shows that traders are assigning a 76% probability to Anthropic being the first to IPO, compared to OpenAI's 27%. This market, tracking an IPO before 2040, has generated a combined trading volume of $279.7K, indicating considerable interest in the future of these AI giants.

This is a significant spread.

While OpenAI has been a dominant force in the AI landscape, Anthropic's strategic partnerships and rapid development of its Claude models have positioned it as a formidable competitor. The prediction market suggests a belief that Anthropic may be better positioned for an earlier public offering.

**Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXELONMARS-99)

**Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-NBEN)

**How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCO2LEVEL-30-450)

**EU has a new member before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/EUEXPANSION-30)

**Delaware governor winner? (2028)**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYDE-28-R)

**Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOAIANTH-40-ANTH)

**Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMOONMAN-31-USA)

**Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBLUESPACEX-30)

**Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXSPACEXMARS-30)

**Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXROBOTMARS-35)

**Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/STARSHIPMARS-29DEC31)

**When will nuclear fusion be achieved?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFUSION-30-JAN01)

**Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCOLONIZEMARS-50)

**Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMARSVRAIL-50)

**Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXDATACENTER-30)

**Will the US take control of any part of Greenland?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXGREENTERRITORY-29)

**How much will the US acquire Greenland for?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXGREENLANDPRICE-29JAN21-NOACQ)
---
Original analysis from [startuphub.ai](https://www.startuphub.ai), the #1 AI startup directory.