# OpenAI, Anthropic IPO Bets Heat Up _Prediction markets show significant bets on OpenAI or Anthropic going public before 2040, with traders favoring OpenAI to IPO first._ **Published:** 2026-07-25 **Source:** https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/openai-anthropic-ipo-bets-heat-up --- Prediction markets are forecasting the future of the AI landscape, with significant capital flowing into bets on when leading companies might go public. The question of which AI giant, OpenAI or Anthropic, will pursue an Initial Public Offering first is drawing substantial attention, with a combined volume of over $315,000 wagered on the outcome. AI IPO Bets Heat UpDriver prediction markets show significant bets on OpenAI or Anthropic going publicOpenAI vs AnthropicCoreFrom the article 5 mentionsThe question of which AI giant, OpenAI or Anthropic, will pursue an Initial Public Offering first is drawing substantial attention, with a combined volume of over $315,000 wagered on the outcome.Significant WagersContextover $315,000 wagered on the outcome of the IPO timingFrom the article 2 mentionsPrediction markets are forecasting the future of the AI landscape, with significant capital flowing into bets on when leading companies might go public.AI & Tech HotbedContextFrom the articleThe AI & Tech category is a hotbed for speculative trading on Kalshi.Market Favors OpenAIOutcomeFrom the article 2 mentionsThe market currently favors OpenAI going public before Anthropic, with a 86.0% probability assigned to this scenario.IPO Before 2040ContextFrom the article 2 mentionsTraders on Kalshi, All Markets are betting heavily on an IPO occurring before 2040.Other MarketsContextMoon Missions market has $78,000 allocated to next country to send humansFrom the article 7 mentionsBeyond the OpenAI and Anthropic IPO question, other prominent markets include:butAnthropic Still PossibleOutcomeFrom the articleHowever, the opposing bet, that Anthropic will IPO first, still holds a significant 17.0% chance, indicating considerable uncertainty. Traders on [Kalshi, All Markets](https://kalshi.com/markets?digest=2026-07-25) are betting heavily on an IPO occurring before 2040. The market currently favors OpenAI going public before Anthropic, with a 86.0% probability assigned to this scenario. However, the opposing bet, that Anthropic will IPO first, still holds a significant 17.0% chance, indicating considerable uncertainty. ## AI & Tech Prediction Market Snapshot The AI & Tech category is a hotbed for speculative trading on Kalshi. Beyond the OpenAI and Anthropic IPO question, other prominent markets include: - **Moon Missions:** A substantial $78,000 is allocated to the question of which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon by 2031, with the USA currently favored. Bets also cover SpaceX's lunar and Martian ambitions, including landing on the moon before Blue Origin and successfully landing on Mars before 2030. - **Humanoid Robots on Mars:** A fascinating market explores whether a humanoid robot will walk on Mars before a human does by 2035, with odds nearly split down the middle. - **Nuclear Fusion:** Multiple markets are tracking the race to achieve nuclear fusion, with varying timelines and probabilities assigned to breakthroughs before 2030, 2035, and 2040. These prediction markets offer a unique, albeit speculative, glimpse into how investors perceive the future trajectory of cutting-edge technology and major industry players. **Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXELONMARS-99) **Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-NBEN) **When will Ukraine hold a presidential election?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXELECTUKRAINE-30JAN01-27JAN01) **How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCO2LEVEL-30-450) **EU has a new member before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/EUEXPANSION-30) **Who will be the next Secretary General of NATO?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXNEXTNATOSECGEN-99-KKAL) **Super Ballon d'Or awarded before 2030**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXSUPERBALLONDOR-30-YES) **Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOAIANTH-40-ANTH) **Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMOONMAN-31-USA) **Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBLUESPACEX-30) **Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXSPACEXMARS-30) **Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXROBOTMARS-35) **Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/STARSHIPMARS-29DEC31) **When will nuclear fusion be achieved?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFUSION-30-JAN01) **Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCOLONIZEMARS-50) **Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/events/KXMARSVRAIL-50) --- Original analysis from [startuphub.ai](https://www.startuphub.ai), the #1 AI startup directory.