# Moonshot Bets: Who Reaches Lunar Surface First? _Prediction markets show the US has a 54% chance of being the next country to land humans on the Moon before 2031, with China a distant second._ **Updated:** 2026-08-22 **Published:** 2026-05-27 **Source:** https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/moonshot-bets-who-reaches-lunar-surface-first --- Markets are placing bets on which nation will achieve the next crewed lunar landing. Current predictions favor the United States, with a 54% chance of being the first country to send humans back to the Moon before 2031. Broader Space AmbitionsContextcontext for national goals and investments in space explorationFrom the articleThis is part of a broader discussion on the future of space exploration and Markets Weigh OpenAI, Anthropic IPO Futures.informsSpace Race FuturesDrivermarkets betting on which country lands humans on moonFrom the articleThis is part of a broader discussion on the future of space exploration and Markets Weigh OpenAI, Anthropic IPO Futures.driven byPrediction MarketsContextspeculative markets on future events, like lunar landingsFrom the article 9+ mentionsThese insights come from an analysis of active prediction markets on Kalshi, All Markets, which collectively saw $20.6 million in trading volume.predictsUS Lunar LandingOutcome54% chance of US crewed moon landing before 2031From the article 4 mentionsMarkets are placing bets on which nation will achieve the next crewed lunar landing.China Lunar LandingOutcome37% chance of China crewed moon landing before 2031From the articleMarkets are placing bets on which nation will achieve the next crewed lunar landing.Other NationsOutcomeFrom the article 3 mentionsOther nations are seen as significantly less likely to reach this milestone within the same timeframe.Trading VolumeContext$20.6 million traded across prediction markets analyzedFrom the article 3 mentionsThese insights come from an analysis of active prediction markets on Kalshi, All Markets, which collectively saw $20.6 million in trading volume. China is the next closest contender, holding a 37% probability in these speculative markets. Other nations are seen as significantly less likely to reach this milestone within the same timeframe. These insights come from an analysis of active prediction markets on [Kalshi, All Markets](https://kalshi.com/markets?digest=2026-05-27), which collectively saw $20.6 million in trading volume. ## Space Race Futures The question of a [country send humans to Moon before 2031](https://kalshi.com/events/KXMOONMAN-31) is drawing considerable attention. The market for a US landing before January 1, 2031, has seen $70.7K in volume, with a 54% implied probability. The parallel market for China achieving this feat before the same date has traded $40.7K, reflecting a 37% chance. Markets for India, Russia, and Europe to achieve this before 2031 are significantly smaller, with volumes of $7.8K, $7.4K, and $5.3K respectively. **Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXELONMARS-99) ## Broader Space Ambitions Beyond lunar missions, traders are speculating on other ambitious space endeavors. The possibility of OpenAI or Anthropic launching an IPO before 2040 is being actively traded, indicating significant interest in the future of AI companies. Meanwhile, bets are also being placed on SpaceX's Mars ambitions, with markets exploring whether the company will land anything on the red planet before 2030, or if a manned Starship mission will precede that year. The prospect of Blue Origin landing a lander before SpaceX also captures market attention. Even the distant goal of human colonization of Mars before 2050 is seeing speculative investment. In a separate category, predictions regarding Elon Musk's lifetime Mars visit are also being tracked, with markets assessing the odds of his journey before 2099. This is part of a broader discussion on the future of space exploration and [Markets Weigh OpenAI, Anthropic IPO Futures](/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/markets-weigh-openai-anthropic-ipo-futures). **Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-NBEN) **How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCO2LEVEL-30-450) **EU has a new member before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/EUEXPANSION-30) **Delaware governor winner? 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