# Moon Race: Who's Next?

_Prediction markets show the US as the favorite to be the next nation to send humans to the Moon before 2031, with China as a close second._

**Updated:** 2026-08-22
**Published:** 2026-06-23
**Source:** https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/moon-race-who-s-next

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The race to return humans to the Moon is heating up, with prediction markets showing strong sentiment around which nation will achieve this feat next. The current market consensus, tracked on [Kalshi, All Markets](https://kalshi.com/markets?digest=2026-06-23), suggests the United States is the frontrunner.

Moon Race Heats UpDriverFrom the articleThe race to return humans to the Moon is heating up, with prediction markets showing strong sentiment around which nation will achieve this feat next.Prediction MarketsContextKalshi and All Markets tracking trader sentiment and oddsFrom the article 6 mentionsThe competition for lunar supremacy is underscored by the substantial volume in these prediction markets.AI & Tech SectorContextmoon race predictions part of broader AI/tech market betsFrom the articleThis question is part of a broader set of predictions within the AI & Tech sector.US FavoriteOutcome62.9% odds for US to land humans before 2031China Close SecondOutcome40.4% odds for China to achieve lunar landing nextOther AI BetsContextFrom the article 2 mentionsOther markets are exploring timelines for IPOs of AI giants like OpenAI and Anthropic, and the feasibility of SpaceX missions to Mars.

Traders are betting on the US to be the next country to land humans on the Moon before 2031, with 62.9% odds. China follows as a strong contender, holding 40.4% odds.

## AI & Tech

This question is part of a broader set of predictions within the AI & Tech sector. Other markets are exploring timelines for IPOs of AI giants like OpenAI and Anthropic, and the feasibility of SpaceX missions to Mars. The [AI IPOs: OpenAI vs. Anthropic Bets](/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/ai-ipos-openai-vs-anthropic-bets) market, for instance, highlights speculative interest in the future of major AI players, distinct from the lunar ambitions.

The competition for lunar supremacy is underscored by the substantial volume in these prediction markets.

**Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXELONMARS-99)

**Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-NBEN)

**How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCO2LEVEL-30-450)

**EU has a new member before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/EUEXPANSION-30)

**Delaware governor winner? (2028)**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYDE-28-R)

**Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOAIANTH-40-ANTH)

**Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMOONMAN-31-USA)

**Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBLUESPACEX-30)

**Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXSPACEXMARS-30)

**Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXROBOTMARS-35)

**Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/STARSHIPMARS-29DEC31)

**When will nuclear fusion be achieved?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFUSION-30-JAN01)

**Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCOLONIZEMARS-50)

**Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMARSVRAIL-50)

**Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXDATACENTER-30)

**Will the US take control of any part of Greenland?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXGREENTERRITORY-29)

**How much will the US acquire Greenland for?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXGREENLANDPRICE-29JAN21-NOACQ)

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