# Moon Race Heats Up: Markets Predict Next Lander _Prediction markets are placing their bets on which nation will achieve the next crewed Moon landing by 2031, with the US leading the pack._ **Published:** 2026-05-15 **Source:** https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/moon-race-heats-up-markets-predict-next-lander --- The race to return humans to the Moon is intensifying, with prediction markets showing significant activity. According to data from [Kalshi, All Markets](https://kalshi.com/markets?digest=2026-05-15), the United States is the current frontrunner to achieve the next crewed lunar landing by 2031. Moon Race IntensifiesDriver competition to return humans to the Moon is heating upFrom the articleThe race to return humans to the Moon is intensifying, with prediction markets showing significant activity.driven byPrediction Markets ActiveContextsignificant activity on Kalshi for lunar landing predictionsFrom the article 2 mentionsThis focus on lunar missions comes amidst broader speculation about future space endeavors, including other predictions about space exploration, and even far-off goals like Mars visits, which are also being debated on prediction markets, as seen in discussions about future AI IPO races.US Leads Lander OddsCore55.5% probability for US next crewed Moon landing by 2031China Second ContenderCore39.0% chance for China to achieve next lunar landingAI & Tech BetsContextFrom the articleThe AI & Tech category on Kalshi reveals a substantial $69.4K wager on the U.S. leading the next lunar mission.Other Nations Long ShotsContextFrom the articleOther nations are seen as long shots, with India, Russia, and Europe each attracting only single-digit percentages of the betting volume for this specific event.Future Space SpeculationContextFrom the articleThis focus on lunar missions comes amidst broader speculation about future space endeavors, including other predictions about space exploration, and even far-off goals like Mars visits, which are also being debated on prediction markets, as seen in discussions about future AI IPO races. Markets indicate a 55.5% probability that the U.S. will be the next country to send humans to the Moon, reflecting ongoing Artemis program developments. This is followed by China, with a 39.0% chance, signaling strong international competition in lunar exploration. ## AI & Tech Markets The AI & Tech category on Kalshi reveals a substantial $69.4K wager on the U.S. leading the next lunar mission. Another $40.7K is placed on China as the successor to past lunar achievements. Other nations are seen as long shots, with India, Russia, and Europe each attracting only single-digit percentages of the betting volume for this specific event. This focus on lunar missions comes amidst broader speculation about future space endeavors, including [other predictions about space exploration](/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/who-s-next-for-the-moon-betting-markets-weigh-in), and even far-off goals like Mars visits, which are also being debated on prediction markets, as seen in discussions about [future AI IPO races](/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/ai-ipo-race-markets-bet-on-openai-vs-anthropic). The total combined volume across all tracked Kalshi markets reached $19.4 million, underscoring the significant financial interest in predicting future geopolitical and technological milestones. **Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXELONMARS-99) **Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-NBEN) **How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCO2LEVEL-30-450) **EU has a new member before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/EUEXPANSION-30) **Delaware governor winner? (2028)**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYDE-28-R) **Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMOONMAN-31-USA) **Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOAIANTH-40-ANTH) **Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBLUESPACEX-30) **Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXSPACEXMARS-30) **Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXROBOTMARS-35) **When will nuclear fusion be achieved?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFUSION-30-JAN01) **Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/STARSHIPMARS-29DEC31) **Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCOLONIZEMARS-50) **Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMARSVRAIL-50) **Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXDATACENTER-30) **Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXNEXTAG-29-TBLA) --- Original analysis from [startuphub.ai](https://www.startuphub.ai), the #1 AI startup directory.