# Moon Race Heats Up: Markets Eye 2031 Landing
_Prediction markets show strong sentiment for a pre-2031 lunar landing, with the US favored over China._
**Published:** 2026-05-01
**Source:** https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/moon-race-heats-up-markets-eye-2031-landing
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The race to put humans back on the Moon is intensifying, with prediction markets showing a clear expectation that a nation will achieve this feat before 2031. Current sentiment, as tracked on [Kalshi, All Markets](https://kalshi.com/markets?digest=2026-05-01), favors the United States to be the next country to land astronauts on the lunar surface, holding a 54% probability.

The market for the next country to achieve a crewed lunar landing before January 1st, 2031, has seen substantial activity, with over $118,000 traded. China is a close second contender, with markets assigning it a 30% chance.

## Lunar Ambitions and Market Bets

This prediction market activity reflects a broader global interest in space exploration and the potential for renewed international competition in lunar missions.

Will Elon Musk visit Mars before 2099? This question, explored in the context of future space endeavors, is part of a larger trend of long-term speculative investments in technological and exploratory milestones. For more on the intersection of AI and future predictions, see [AI Giants Eye IPOs: Markets Bet on OpenAI vs. Anthropic](/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/ai-giants-eye-ipos-markets-bet-on-openai-vs-anthropic).

Other significant markets include bets on SpaceX's ability to land on Mars before 2030, and whether Blue Origin will beat SpaceX to a lunar landing. These markets underscore a dynamic period for private and national space programs.

A single sentence paragraph.

**Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXELONMARS-99)

**Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-NBEN)

**How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCO2LEVEL-30-440)

**EU has a new member before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/EUEXPANSION-30)

**Delaware governor winner? (2028)**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYDE-28-R)

**Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMOONMAN-31-USA)

**Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOAIANTH-40-ANTH)

**Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXSPACEXMARS-30)

**Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBLUESPACEX-30)

**Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXROBOTMARS-35)

**When will nuclear fusion be achieved?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFUSION-30-JAN01)

**Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/STARSHIPMARS-29DEC31)

**Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCOLONIZEMARS-50)

**Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMARSVRAIL-50)

**Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXDATACENTER-30)

**Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXGREENLAND-29)

**Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXNEXTAG-29-TBLA)
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Original analysis from [startuphub.ai](https://www.startuphub.ai), the #1 AI startup directory.