# Moon Race Heats Up: Bets On For Space Race _Prediction markets show intense betting on the 'SpaceX Moon landing race' and future Mars missions, with the US favored to reach the Moon next._ **Updated:** 2026-08-22 **Published:** 2026-07-08 **Source:** https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/moon-race-heats-up-bets-on-for-space-race --- The race to the Moon, and Mars, is on, and increasingly, people are putting their money where their space dreams are. Prediction markets are buzzing with activity, reflecting a keen interest in humanity's next giant leaps beyond Earth. Total combined volume across these markets has reached $7.8 million, according to [Kalshi, All Markets](https://kalshi.com/markets?digest=2026-07-08). Moon Race Heats UpDriverprediction markets show intense betting on space race milestonesFrom the article 2 mentionsThe race to the Moon, and Mars, is on, and increasingly, people are putting their money where their space dreams are.reflectsPrediction Markets BuzzingContexttotal combined volume across markets reached $7.8 millionFrom the article 2 mentionsPrediction markets are buzzing with activity, reflecting a keen interest in humanity's next giant leaps beyond Earth.Geopolitical InterestContextwar and geopolitics sections highlight global space race dynamicsFrom the article 2 mentionsBeyond space, prediction markets are also tracking geopolitical events.USA Moon Landing FavoredOutcomeUSA has 60.0% odds to be next country to reach MoonFrom the articleThe 'SpaceX Moon landing race' is a hot topic, with specific bets on Blue Origin versus SpaceX.SpaceX Moon Landing RaceCoreFrom the article 4 mentionsThe 'SpaceX Moon landing race' is a hot topic, with specific bets on Blue Origin versus SpaceX.China Follows CloselyOutcomePeople's Republic of China has 45.8% odds for Moon landingFrom the articleThe People's Republic of China follows closely with 45.8% odds and $44.7K in volume.Blue Origin FavoredOutcomeFrom the article 3 mentionsCurrently, Blue Origin is slightly favored to land an uncrewed lander before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship, with 57.0% odds and $84.8K in volume.Mars AmbitionsContextSpaceX's future ambitions extend to Mars missionsFrom the article 9+ mentionsHowever, the odds for a successful SpaceX landing on Mars before 2030 are lower, at 28.0% and $83.2K in volume. ## AI & Tech In the AI & Tech sector, the question of who will next send humans to the Moon is drawing significant attention. The market currently favors the USA, with 60.0% odds and $77.2K in volume, to be the next country to achieve this milestone before 2031. The People's Republic of China follows closely with 45.8% odds and $44.7K in volume. The 'SpaceX Moon landing race' is a hot topic, with specific bets on Blue Origin versus SpaceX. Currently, Blue Origin is slightly favored to land an uncrewed lander before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship, with 57.0% odds and $84.8K in volume. SpaceX's ambitions extend to Mars as well. However, the odds for a successful SpaceX landing on Mars before 2030 are lower, at 28.0% and $83.2K in volume. Similarly, a manned Starship mission to Mars before 2030 is seen as less likely, with only 18.0% odds and $46.9K in volume. The broader question of whether humans will colonize Mars before 2050 sees a less optimistic outlook, with only 22.0% odds and $22.9K in volume. **Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXELONMARS-99) ## War & Geopolitics Beyond space, prediction markets are also tracking geopolitical events. The question of Elon Musk visiting Mars in his lifetime before 2099 has attracted $111.9K in volume, with an 88.0% probability assigned to him *not* making the trip. Other markets reflect uncertainty around future leadership in Israel and the progression of CO2 atmospheric concentration. The potential for EU expansion by 2030 is seen as likely, with 73.0% odds. The timelines for critical events are being debated. **Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-NBEN) **How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCO2LEVEL-30-450) **EU has a new member before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/EUEXPANSION-30) **Who will be the next Secretary General of NATO?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXNEXTNATOSECGEN-99-KKAL) **When will Ukraine hold a presidential election?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXELECTUKRAINE-30JAN01-27JAN01) **Super Ballon d'Or awarded before 2030**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXSUPERBALLONDOR-30-YES) **Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOAIANTH-40-ANTH) **Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMOONMAN-31-USA) **Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBLUESPACEX-30) **Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXSPACEXMARS-30) **Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXROBOTMARS-35) **Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/STARSHIPMARS-29DEC31) **When will nuclear fusion be achieved?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFUSION-30-JAN01) **Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCOLONIZEMARS-50) **Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/events/KXMARSVRAIL-50) --- Original analysis from [startuphub.ai](https://www.startuphub.ai), the #1 AI startup directory. © StartupHub.ai. All rights reserved. You may not republish this article in full without a license. Search engines and AI research tools may crawl and summarize for reference. Bulk reproduction or model training on this content requires a license. See https://www.startuphub.ai/terms.