# Moon Race: Betting on Nations' Lunar Ambitions
_Prediction markets favor the US to be the next nation to send humans to the Moon by 2031, with China as a distant second. Total volume across markets nears $20M._
**Published:** 2026-04-20
**Source:** https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/moon-race-betting-on-nations-lunar-ambitions
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Prediction markets reveal a clear frontrunner in the race to return humans to the Moon. As of the latest digest from [Kalshi, All Markets](https://kalshi.com/markets?digest=2026-04-20), the United States holds a commanding 59% probability of being the next nation to achieve this milestone by 2031, attracting $65.0K in trading volume.

China follows with a 29.5% chance and $37.7K in volume, suggesting a distant second position in this high-stakes competition. Markets for Russia, India, and Europe to achieve this goal before 2031 show minimal investor confidence, with odds hovering around 2% or less.

## AI & Tech

**Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-NBEN)

### Next Country to Send Humans to the Moon

The market for the next country to send humans to the Moon by 2031 is heavily weighted towards the US. The current odds suggest a 59% chance of American success, with a $65.0K volume. China is the next closest contender at 29.5% with $37.7K in volume.

The odds for other nations are significantly lower: Russia at 2.0% ($7.1K volume), India at 0.9% ($6.1K volume), and Europe at 3.5% ($5.2K volume). These figures indicate a strong market consensus favoring the US in this lunar endeavor.

**Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMOONMAN-31-USA)

## War & Geopolitics

**EU has a new member before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/EUEXPANSION-30)

### Elon Musk's Mars Ambitions

Meanwhile, speculation continues regarding Mars. The question of [Will Elon Musk visit Mars before 2099?](/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/mars-visit-musk-odds-revealed) sees a staggering 91% probability of 'No', despite the long timeframe.

**Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXELONMARS-99)

### EU Expansion Prospects

In geopolitical forecasting, the possibility of the [EU expanding by 2030](/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/kalshi-33x-on-greenland-bet-5-more-high-return-bets) is seen as a strong possibility, with a 72% chance of 'Yes' and $6.6K in trading volume. This indicates significant market belief in the bloc's continued growth.

The total combined volume across all tracked Kalshi markets reached $19.5 million, underscoring the broad investor interest in predicting future global events.

**How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCO2LEVEL-30-440)

**Delaware governor winner? (2028)**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYDE-28-R)

**Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOAIANTH-40-ANTH)

**Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXSPACEXMARS-30)

**Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBLUESPACEX-30)

**Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXROBOTMARS-35)

**When will nuclear fusion be achieved?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFUSION-30-JAN01)

**Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/STARSHIPMARS-29DEC31)

**Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCOLONIZEMARS-50)

**Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMARSVRAIL-50)

**Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXDATACENTER-30)

**Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXGREENLAND-29)

**Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXNEXTAG-29-TBLA)
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Original analysis from [startuphub.ai](https://www.startuphub.ai), the #1 AI startup directory.