# AI IPOs: OpenAI vs. Anthropic Bets _Prediction markets are actively betting on whether OpenAI or Anthropic will IPO first, signaling investor interest in the future of AI giants._ **Published:** 2026-06-18 **Source:** https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/ai-ipos-openai-vs-anthropic-bets --- The race to the public markets between AI heavyweights OpenAI and Anthropic is already a betting proposition. Prediction markets are actively trading on which of the two generative AI pioneers will conduct its initial public offering first. As of this digest, markets lean towards Anthropic making its debut before OpenAI, reflecting current investor sentiment and strategic positioning in the rapidly evolving AI landscape. Update: Anthropic files for IPO (June 2026) Anthropic filed confidential IPO documents with the SEC on June 1, 2026, targeting a Nasdaq or NYSE listing in October 2026. The offering is led by Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley. The company's most recent valuation stands at approximately $965 billion after a $65 billion Series H-1 round in May 2026, with a debut above $1 trillion considered the base case. No share price or firm listing date has been set. AI Giants RaceContext OpenAI and Anthropic compete for public market debutFrom the article 4 mentionsAnthropic, and the broader question of AI Giants Face IPO Test.leads toPrediction Markets ActiveDriverTraders bet on which AI company will IPO firstFrom the article 8 mentionsThe political landscape in Israel is another area of active speculation, with markets forecasting potential successors to the Prime Minister role.Anthropic IPO OddsOutcomeMarkets favor Anthropic IPOing first with 76% oddsFrom the article 9 mentionsOne market shows 76.0% odds favoring Anthropic to IPO first, with a return of 1.3x on a winning bet.OpenAI IPO OddsOutcomeFrom the article 7 mentionsConversely, the market for OpenAI IPOing first has 27.0% odds, offering a higher 3.7x return, suggesting a higher-risk, higher-reward bet for those anticipating an OpenAI listing.Broader AI BetsContextPart of larger trading volume in AI/Tech marketsFrom the article 5 mentionsBeyond the potential OpenAI Anthropic IPO, traders are placing bets on a range of future technological achievements and geopolitical shifts.indicatesInvestor SentimentEffectFrom the articleAs of this digest, markets lean towards Anthropic making its debut before OpenAI, reflecting current investor sentiment and strategic positioning in the rapidly evolving AI landscape. This speculation is part of a broader trend of significant trading volume in AI and Tech prediction markets on [Kalshi, All Markets](https://kalshi.com/markets?digest=2026-06-18). Beyond the potential **OpenAI Anthropic IPO**, traders are placing bets on a range of future technological achievements and geopolitical shifts. ## AI & Tech Markets The question of which AI company, OpenAI or Anthropic, will IPO first is drawing substantial interest. One market shows 76.0% odds favoring Anthropic to IPO first, with a return of 1.3x on a winning bet. Conversely, the market for OpenAI IPOing first has 27.0% odds, offering a higher 3.7x return, suggesting a higher-risk, higher-reward bet for those anticipating an OpenAI listing. Other AI-related predictions include the race to the Moon, with the US currently holding a slight edge in market odds over China to be the next country to land humans. Blue Origin's lunar ambitions are also being wagered upon, with markets split on whether the company will land a lander before SpaceX lands its Starship. Longer-term bets explore the colonization of Mars and the feasibility of humanoid robots on the red planet, underscoring the speculative nature of future technological advancements. Fusion energy timelines are also being quantified, with markets betting on when this breakthrough technology will be achieved. **Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXELONMARS-99) ## War & Geopolitics Markets Beyond AI, prediction markets are actively assessing geopolitical and existential risks. A significant portion of the $7.9 million total combined volume is allocated to markets exploring the future of space exploration, such as the likelihood of Elon Musk visiting Mars. This reflects a broader interest in quantifying even highly speculative, long-term events, similar to discussions around [AI IPOs: Betting on OpenAI vs. Anthropic](/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/ai-ipos-betting-on-openai-vs-anthropic), and the broader question of [AI Giants Face IPO Test](/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/ai-giants-face-ipo-test). The potential for US acquisition of Greenland is a major driver of trading volume, with markets speculating on the terms and likelihood of such an event during a potential Trump presidency. Concerns about climate change are also reflected, with markets predicting atmospheric CO2 concentration levels before 2030. The political landscape in Israel is another area of active speculation, with markets forecasting potential successors to the Prime Minister role. These diverse markets highlight a growing demand for quantifiable predictions on complex, uncertain futures, ranging from the immediate IPO plans of AI leaders to the distant prospect of interplanetary travel. **Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-NBEN) **How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCO2LEVEL-30-450) **EU has a new member before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/EUEXPANSION-30) **Delaware governor winner? (2028)**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYDE-28-R) **Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOAIANTH-40-ANTH) **Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMOONMAN-31-USA) **Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBLUESPACEX-30) **Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXSPACEXMARS-30) **Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXROBOTMARS-35) **Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/STARSHIPMARS-29DEC31) **When will nuclear fusion be achieved?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFUSION-30-JAN01) **Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCOLONIZEMARS-50) **Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMARSVRAIL-50) **Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXDATACENTER-30) **Will the US take control of any part of Greenland?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXGREENTERRITORY-29) **How much will the US acquire Greenland for?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXGREENLANDPRICE-29JAN21-NOACQ) **Last updated: July 2026** ## Frequently Asked Questions ### Has Anthropic filed for an IPO? Yes. Anthropic filed confidential IPO documents with the SEC on June 1, 2026, targeting a listing on Nasdaq or NYSE in October 2026. The offering is led by Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley. No share price or firm listing date has been confirmed; the timeline depends on market conditions. ### What is Anthropic's valuation ahead of its IPO? Anthropic's most recent valuation is approximately $965 billion, reached after a $65 billion Series H-1 funding round in May 2026. A market debut above $1 trillion is considered the base case scenario by deal advisors, which would make it one of the largest tech IPOs in history. ### Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? As of July 2026, prediction markets lean toward Anthropic going public first. Anthropic has already filed confidential IPO documents targeting October 2026. OpenAI has not announced a formal IPO filing, though it has explored public market options. Kalshi and Polymarket both offer active contracts on the outcome. ### Where can I bet on the Anthropic or OpenAI IPO date? Prediction markets on the Anthropic and OpenAI IPO race are actively traded on Kalshi (search "OpenAI IPO" or "Anthropic IPO") and Polymarket. Contract terms, expiry dates, and liquidity vary by platform. Always verify current odds directly on the trading platform. --- Original analysis from [startuphub.ai](https://www.startuphub.ai), the #1 AI startup directory.