# AI IPOs: Markets Weigh OpenAI vs. Anthropic _Prediction markets show a strong sentiment for Anthropic to IPO before OpenAI, with significant trading volume on the outcome._ **Updated:** 2026-08-22 **Published:** 2026-05-20 **Source:** https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/ai-ipos-markets-weigh-openai-vs-anthropic --- The race to the public market for AI giants is on, with prediction [markets](/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/ai-ipo-race-markets-bet-on-openai-vs-anthropic) heavily favoring Anthropic over OpenAI to make its IPO debut first. Traders have placed substantial bets on which of the two leading AI research labs will go public by 2040, with a significant majority backing Anthropic. AI IPO RaceDriverprediction markets show strong sentiment for IPOsFrom the article 6 mentionsThe race to the public market for AI giants is on, with prediction markets heavily favoring Anthropic over OpenAI to make its IPO debut first.OpenAI vs. AnthropicCoretwo leading AI research labs competing for public marketFrom the article 5 mentionsThe market currently suggests an 82.0% probability that Anthropic will IPO before OpenAI, indicating strong investor conviction.Prediction MarketsContextplatforms like Kalshi see significant trading volumeFrom the article 8 mentionsBeyond the AI IPO landscape, other prediction markets reveal a diverse set of future bets.Broader BetsContextspeculation on Moon/Mars missions and country achievementsFrom the article 5 mentionsThese bets highlight a broader fascination with long-term technological and exploratory advancements.Anthropic FavoredOutcome82% probability Anthropic IPOs before OpenAIFrom the article 5 mentionsTraders have placed substantial bets on which of the two leading AI research labs will go public by 2040, with a significant majority backing Anthropic.Long-term AdvancementsContextfascination with future technological and exploratory milestonesFrom the articleThese bets highlight a broader fascination with long-term technological and exploratory advancements.reflectsInvestor ConvictionEffectsubstantial bets placed on IPO timelineFrom the articleThe market currently suggests an 82.0% probability that Anthropic will IPO before OpenAI, indicating strong investor conviction. This sentiment is reflected in the trading volumes on platforms like Kalshi, where the question of 'Will Open AI or Anthropic IPO first?' has seen considerable activity. The market currently suggests an 82.0% probability that Anthropic will IPO before OpenAI, indicating strong investor conviction. Beyond the AI IPO landscape, other prediction markets reveal a diverse set of future [bets](/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/netanyahu-succession-bets). Traders are also speculating on the timeline for human missions to the Moon and Mars, with considerable volume dedicated to predicting which country will achieve these milestones next. These bets highlight a broader fascination with long-term technological and exploratory advancements. ## Space Race and Political Futures The prediction markets also show active trading on outcomes in space exploration. Bets are being placed on whether Blue Origin will land on the moon before SpaceX, and the likelihood of SpaceX successfully landing on Mars before 2030. The question of whether a humanoid robot will walk on Mars before a human also garners significant attention, with a 45.0% probability assigned to the robot scenario. The complex geopolitical landscape is also a subject of prediction. Markets are tracking potential leadership changes, such as who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel, with bets extending far into the future. Similarly, there are predictions about the EU's expansion and the outcome of the 2028 Delaware gubernatorial race. Even the potential for nuclear fusion power and the development of nuclear-powered data centers are being bet upon, demonstrating the breadth of future events that traders are attempting to price in. The total combined volume across these diverse markets reflects a strong appetite for predicting the shape of the future. **Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXELONMARS-99) **Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-NBEN) **How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCO2LEVEL-30-450) **EU has a new member before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/EUEXPANSION-30) **Delaware governor winner? (2028)**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYDE-28-R) **Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMOONMAN-31-USA) **Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOAIANTH-40-ANTH) **Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBLUESPACEX-30) **Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXSPACEXMARS-30) **Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXROBOTMARS-35) **When will nuclear fusion be achieved?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFUSION-30-JAN01) **Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/STARSHIPMARS-29DEC31) **Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCOLONIZEMARS-50) **Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMARSVRAIL-50) **Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXDATACENTER-30) **Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXNEXTAG-29-TBLA) --- Original analysis from [startuphub.ai](https://www.startuphub.ai), the #1 AI startup directory. © StartupHub.ai. 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