# AI IPOs: Betting on OpenAI vs. Anthropic _Prediction markets show significant bets on whether OpenAI or Anthropic will IPO first, reflecting strong future market sentiment for AI giants._ **Published:** 2026-06-09 **Source:** https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/ai-ipos-betting-on-openai-vs-anthropic --- The race to the public markets for AI powerhouses OpenAI and Anthropic is being closely watched, not just by investors but also by punters on Kalshi, a prediction market platform. A significant $242.2K has been traded on which of these AI titans will IPO first. AI IPO RaceContext OpenAI and Anthropic are key players in the AI sectorFrom the article 8 mentionsBoth scenarios are set to expire in 2040, indicating a long-term outlook from traders on this AI IPO race.Long-Term OutlookContextFrom the articleBoth scenarios are set to expire in 2040, indicating a long-term outlook from traders on this AI IPO race.Prediction MarketsContextKalshi platform shows significant bets on IPO timingFrom the article 7 mentionsThe race to the public markets for AI powerhouses OpenAI and Anthropic is being closely watched, not just by investors but also by punters on Kalshi, a prediction market platform.showsMarket SentimentDriverTraders bet $242.2K on which AI giant IPOs firstFrom the article 7 mentionsBeyond the AI arena, prediction markets are also capturing sentiment on a diverse range of future events.Anthropic FavoredOutcomeFrom the article 4 mentionsThe market currently favors Anthropic making its debut before OpenAI, with 75.0% odds and a substantial volume of $132.0K.OpenAI OptionOutcomeFrom the article 5 mentionsHowever, the chance that OpenAI beats its rival to an IPO is not being dismissed, holding 34.0% odds and $110.2K in trading volume.IPO InevitableEffectStrong belief that an IPO is a matter of 'when'From the article 6 mentionsA significant $242.2K has been traded on which of these AI titans will IPO first. The market currently favors Anthropic making its debut before OpenAI, with 75.0% odds and a substantial volume of $132.0K. However, the chance that OpenAI beats its rival to an IPO is not being dismissed, holding 34.0% odds and $110.2K in trading volume. Both scenarios are set to expire in 2040, indicating a long-term outlook from traders on this [AI IPO race](/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/ai-ipo-odds-openai-vs-anthropic). This speculation highlights the immense interest in the future of these leading AI companies. While specific filings have not been made, the prediction market activity suggests a strong belief that an [OpenAI IPO](/ai-news/artificial-intelligence/2026/openai-submits-draft-s-1-filing) or an Anthropic offering is a matter of 'when,' not 'if.' The volume traded underscores the high stakes and anticipation surrounding these potential landmark events in the tech industry, with traders betting on the [OpenAI Anthropic IPO](/ai-news/artificial-intelligence/2026/openai-intelligence-at-work-for-enterprises) timeline. Beyond the AI arena, prediction markets are also capturing sentiment on a diverse range of future events. These include the ambitious goal of humans visiting Mars, with a market on whether Elon Musk will achieve this before 2099. This topic, drawing $94.8K in volume, also features in discussions around [AI Giants' IPO Race Heats Up on Prediction Markets](/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/ai-giants-ipo-race-heats-up-on-prediction-markets). Geopolitical and scientific endeavors also feature prominently. Markets are active on topics such as the succession of the Israeli Prime Minister, with nearly $200K traded across various candidates. The possibility of EU expansion by 2030 has also attracted attention, alongside forecasts for CO2 atmospheric concentration levels. In space exploration, the race to the Moon is a hot topic, with over $100K wagered on which country will be the next to send humans. Similarly, significant volumes are dedicated to the prospects of SpaceX landing on Mars before 2030 and the broader question of human colonization of the Red Planet by 2050. The political landscape is not ignored, with substantial trading volume on potential US territorial acquisitions, particularly concerning Greenland and other territories becoming US states during a potential Trump term. **Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXELONMARS-99) **Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-NBEN) **How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCO2LEVEL-30-450) **EU has a new member before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/EUEXPANSION-30) **Delaware governor winner? (2028)**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYDE-28-R) **Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOAIANTH-40-ANTH) **Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMOONMAN-31-USA) **Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBLUESPACEX-30) **Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXSPACEXMARS-30) **Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXROBOTMARS-35) **Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/STARSHIPMARS-29DEC31) **When will nuclear fusion be achieved?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFUSION-30-JAN01) **Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCOLONIZEMARS-50) **Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMARSVRAIL-50) **Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXDATACENTER-30) **Will the US take control of any part of Greenland?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXGREENTERRITORY-29) **What will be the 51st state in Trump's term?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXSTATE51-29-GL) --- Original analysis from [startuphub.ai](https://www.startuphub.ai), the #1 AI startup directory.