# AI IPO Race: Markets Bet on OpenAI vs. Anthropic _Prediction markets favor Anthropic to IPO before OpenAI, with significant trading volume reflecting investor interest in the AI sector's public market future._ **Updated:** 2026-08-22 **Published:** 2026-05-14 **Source:** https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/ai-ipo-race-markets-bet-on-openai-vs-anthropic --- Speculation is intensifying around the future of AI giants, with prediction markets now offering odds on which leading company, OpenAI or Anthropic, will take the plunge into the public markets first. The odds, as tracked on [Kalshi, All Markets](https://kalshi.com/markets?digest=2026-05-14), currently favor Anthropic. AI IPO RaceContextinvestor interest in AI sector's public market futureFrom the article 2 mentionsBeyond the OpenAI/Anthropic IPO question, other high-volume markets include bets on Blue Origin landing on the moon before SpaceX, and SpaceX successfully landing a craft on Mars before 2030.tracksPrediction MarketsContexttracking odds on which AI giant goes public firstFrom the article 9+ mentionsSpeculation is intensifying around the future of AI giants, with prediction markets now offering odds on which leading company, OpenAI or Anthropic, will take the plunge into the public markets first.Anthropic FavoredOutcome71% probability Anthropic IPOs before OpenAIFrom the article 6 mentionsThe odds, as tracked on Kalshi, All Markets, currently favor Anthropic.OpenAI vs. AnthropicCoreleading AI companies vying for public market debutFrom the article 6 mentionsMarkets show a 71% probability that Anthropic will conduct its Initial Public Offering before OpenAI, with the bet expiring in 2040.Broader AI/Tech InterestContexthigh volume markets beyond IPOs, like space explorationFrom the articleThe AI and Tech sector continues to draw significant interest on prediction platforms.reflected bySignificant Trading VolumeEffect$67.2K wagered on Anthropic, $53.7K on OpenAIFrom the article 2 mentionsThe trading volume on Kalshi highlights a persistent investor appetite for future-oriented bets. Markets show a 71% probability that Anthropic will conduct its Initial Public Offering before OpenAI, with the bet expiring in 2040. This reflects a significant volume of trades, with $67.2K wagered on Anthropic going public first, and $53.7K on OpenAI. The total combined volume across all tracked prediction markets stands at $19.3 million. ## AI & Tech Market Activity The AI and Tech sector continues to draw significant interest on prediction platforms. Beyond the OpenAI/Anthropic IPO question, other high-volume markets include bets on Blue Origin landing on the moon before SpaceX, and SpaceX successfully landing a craft on Mars before 2030. There's also considerable activity around the future of space exploration, with markets assessing the likelihood of country-led lunar missions and the ambitious goal of human colonization on Mars. The trading volume on Kalshi highlights a persistent investor appetite for future-oriented bets. Separately, the [Netanyahu succession prediction markets](/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/netanyahu-succession-bets) continue to see activity, underscoring the volatility in geopolitical forecasting. War & Geopolitics prediction markets also reflect ongoing global uncertainties, as detailed in recent digests from [Kalshi](/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/elon-musk-tweet-volume-a-prediction-market-view). These insights are drawn from data available via [Trader Claude's](/ai-news/claude), offering a glimpse into market sentiment on future events. **Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXELONMARS-99) **Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-NBEN) **How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCO2LEVEL-30-450) **EU has a new member before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/EUEXPANSION-30) **Delaware governor winner? (2028)**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYDE-28-R) **Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMOONMAN-31-USA) **Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOAIANTH-40-ANTH) **Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBLUESPACEX-30) **Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXSPACEXMARS-30) **Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXROBOTMARS-35) **When will nuclear fusion be achieved?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFUSION-30-JAN01) **Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/STARSHIPMARS-29DEC31) **Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCOLONIZEMARS-50) **Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMARSVRAIL-50) **Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXDATACENTER-30) **Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXNEXTAG-29-TBLA) --- Original analysis from [startuphub.ai](https://www.startuphub.ai), the #1 AI startup directory. © StartupHub.ai. All rights reserved. You may not republish this article in full without a license. Search engines and AI research tools may crawl and summarize for reference. Bulk reproduction or model training on this content requires a license. See https://www.startuphub.ai/terms.