# AI IPO Race: Markets Bet on OpenAI or Anthropic _Prediction markets show significant trading volume on whether OpenAI or Anthropic will IPO first, reflecting intense investor interest in AI's public market future._ **Published:** 2026-05-28 **Source:** https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/ai-ipo-race-markets-bet-on-openai-or-anthropic --- The race to the public [markets](/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/markets-weigh-openai-anthropic-ipo-futures) for artificial intelligence leaders OpenAI and Anthropic is drawing considerable attention, with prediction markets actively trading futures on which company will IPO first. Total combined volume across various prediction markets tracked by Kalshi, All Markets totals $16.2 million. AI IPO RaceDriver intense investor interest in AI's public market futureFrom the article 3 mentionsThe race to the public markets for artificial intelligence leaders OpenAI and Anthropic is drawing considerable attention, with prediction markets actively trading futures on which company will IPO first.OpenAI & AnthropicCoreleading AI firms drawing significant attentionFrom the article 5 mentionsIn the AI & Tech category, the question of whether OpenAI or Anthropic will initiate an Initial Public Offering before 2040 is a focal point.tracked byPrediction MarketsContexttrading futures on which company will IPO firstFrom the article 9+ mentionsTotal combined volume across various prediction markets tracked by Kalshi, All Markets totals $16.2 million.showsTotal VolumeContextFrom the article 6 mentionsTotal combined volume across various prediction markets tracked by Kalshi, All Markets totals $16.2 million.OpenAI FavoredOutcome81.0% odds for OpenAI IPOing before AnthropicFrom the article 5 mentionsFurther out, the question of whether SpaceX will successfully land anything on Mars before 2030 is seeing considerable activity, with 'No' bets currently favored at 74.0% odds.reflectsInvestor SentimentEffectFrom the articleThese markets, while speculative, offer a glimpse into investor sentiment and perceived timelines for significant liquidity events involving these prominent AI firms. In the AI & Tech category, the question of whether OpenAI or Anthropic will initiate an Initial Public Offering before 2040 is a focal point. [Markets](/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/ai-ipos-markets-weigh-openai-vs-anthropic) show OpenAI has a higher implied probability of IPOing first, with 'Yes' on OpenAI IPOing before Anthropic holding 81.0% odds (1.2x return) and $84.8K in volume. Conversely, the 'Yes' bet for Anthropic IPOing first stands at 26.0% odds (3.8x return) with $85.9K in volume. These markets, while speculative, offer a glimpse into investor sentiment and perceived timelines for significant liquidity events involving these prominent AI firms. The substantial trading volume indicates a strong interest in forecasting the future financial strategies of these influential organizations. Beyond the IPO question, other AI and tech-related predictions are being actively traded. Notably, the prospect of a country sending humans to the Moon before 2031 is drawing significant volume, with the USA holding the highest implied probability at 54.9% odds. Blue Origin's chances of landing a lander on the moon before SpaceX are also being debated, with markets favoring Blue Origin at 72.0% odds before 2030. Further out, the question of whether SpaceX will successfully land anything on Mars before 2030 is seeing considerable activity, with 'No' bets currently favored at 74.0% odds. The potential for humanoid robots on Mars before humans by 2035 is also a point of speculation, with odds nearly split. In other categories, the political landscape is also a subject of prediction. Markets are heavily focused on who will be Donald Trump's next Attorney General before January 20th, 2029, with substantial volume seen across various potential candidates. The election for Delaware governor in 2028 also features predictions, though with extremely high odds for both Republican and Democratic party wins. Geopolitical and environmental concerns are also present, including predictions on Elon Musk visiting Mars before 2099, which has 93.0% odds of 'No'. Markets are also assessing the future of CO2 atmospheric concentration before 2030 and the potential for EU expansion. **Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXELONMARS-99) **Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-NBEN) **How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCO2LEVEL-30-450) **EU has a new member before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/EUEXPANSION-30) **Delaware governor winner? (2028)**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYDE-28-R) **Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOAIANTH-40-ANTH) **Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMOONMAN-31-USA) **Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBLUESPACEX-30) **Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXSPACEXMARS-30) **Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXROBOTMARS-35) **Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/STARSHIPMARS-29DEC31) **When will nuclear fusion be achieved?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFUSION-30-JAN01) **Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCOLONIZEMARS-50) **Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMARSVRAIL-50) **Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXDATACENTER-30) **Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXNEXTAG-29-TBLA) --- Original analysis from [startuphub.ai](https://www.startuphub.ai), the #1 AI startup directory.