# AI IPO Odds: OpenAI vs. Anthropic _Prediction markets show strong sentiment for OpenAI or Anthropic to IPO first, with significant trading volume in AI, space, and geopolitical futures._ **Published:** 2026-06-02 **Source:** https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/ai-ipo-odds-openai-vs-anthropic --- The race to public markets for AI giants OpenAI and Anthropic is a focal point for speculation, with prediction markets leaning towards an eventual IPO for one of the generative AI leaders. According to data from [Kalshi, All Markets](https://kalshi.com/markets?digest=2026-06-02), the AI & Tech category is seeing considerable activity. AI IPO RaceDriver prediction markets show strong sentiment for AI giantsFrom the article 4 mentionsThe race to public markets for AI giants OpenAI and Anthropic is a focal point for speculation, with prediction markets leaning towards an eventual IPO for one of the generative AI leaders.also includesOpenAI vs. AnthropicCorekey generative AI leaders in public market speculationFrom the article 5 mentionsMarkets are actively pricing the possibility of an initial public offering from either OpenAI or its rival Anthropic.Geopolitics & SpaceContextalso drawing bets and trading volume on prediction marketsFrom the articleThis aligns with broader interest in space exploration, as seen in markets like "Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?" which has seen over $120K in volume for its various country-specific outcomes.speculation viaPrediction MarketsContextactively pricing possibility of initial public offeringFrom the article 9+ mentionsThe total combined volume across all tracked prediction markets reached $9.0 million.High IPO OddsOutcomeFrom the article 2 mentionsOne market specifically asks, "Will Open AI or Anthropic IPO first?" with 'Yes' currently holding 80.0% odds, suggesting a strong belief that one of them will indeed go public before 2040.Significant VolumeEffectover $120K traded on specific OpenAI/Anthropic IPO marketFrom the article 8 mentionsBeyond AI, significant trading volume is evident in other speculative areas.Total Market VolumeEffectFrom the article 6 mentionsThe total combined volume across all tracked prediction markets reached $9.0 million. ## AI IPO Race Heats Up on Prediction Markets Markets are actively pricing the possibility of an initial public offering from either OpenAI or its rival Anthropic. One market specifically asks, "[Will](/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/kalshi-markets-ai-mars-and-musk) Open AI or Anthropic IPO first?" with 'Yes' currently holding 80.0% odds, suggesting a strong belief that one of them will indeed go public before 2040. This particular market has seen $120.6K in volume. A parallel market, "[Will](/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/ai-ipo-race-markets-bet-on-openai-or-anthropic) OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?" shows 'Yes' at 27.0% odds, indicating a nuanced view on the timing and certainty of such an event. This market has generated $99.6K in trading volume. The total combined volume across all tracked prediction markets reached $9.0 million. **Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXELONMARS-99) ## Geopolitics and Space Exploration Draw Bets Beyond AI, significant trading volume is evident in other speculative areas. The question of whether Elon Musk will visit Mars in his lifetime before 2099 has garnered $94.5K in volume, with 'No' holding 92.0% odds. This aligns with broader interest in space exploration, as seen in markets like "Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?" which has seen over $120K in volume for its various country-specific outcomes. Geopolitical events are also a subject of intense market activity. The potential for the US to acquire Greenland has seen a substantial $2.7 million in volume for the market asking if the US will acquire any part of Greenland before 2029. Similarly, speculation around the succession of Benjamin Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel has generated over $150K in volume across various candidate markets, with all expiring in 2045. These prediction markets offer a unique, real-time glimpse into public sentiment and expectations across a wide spectrum of future events. **Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-NBEN) **How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCO2LEVEL-30-450) **EU has a new member before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/EUEXPANSION-30) **Delaware governor winner? (2028)**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYDE-28-R) **Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOAIANTH-40-ANTH) **Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMOONMAN-31-USA) **Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBLUESPACEX-30) **Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXSPACEXMARS-30) **Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXROBOTMARS-35) **Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/STARSHIPMARS-29DEC31) **When will nuclear fusion be achieved?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFUSION-30-JAN01) **Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCOLONIZEMARS-50) **Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMARSVRAIL-50) **Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXDATACENTER-30) **Will the US take control of any part of Greenland?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXGREENTERRITORY-29) **What will be the 51st state in Trump's term?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXSTATE51-29-GL) --- Original analysis from [startuphub.ai](https://www.startuphub.ai), the #1 AI startup directory.