# AI IPO Bets: OpenAI vs. Anthropic _Prediction markets show strong sentiment for OpenAI's IPO before Anthropic's, with significant volume in AI and geopolitical bets._ **Published:** 2026-04-28 **Source:** https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/ai-ipo-bets-openai-vs-anthropic --- Kalshi, a prediction market platform, is offering a glimpse into what the future might hold, with significant volume concentrating on AI, tech, and geopolitical events. The total combined volume across active markets reached $20.2 million, reflecting a keen interest in speculative futures. ## AI & Tech In the AI & Tech sector, a prominent market asks: **Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?** Currently, the odds favor OpenAI, with a 70% probability, suggesting market participants believe the ChatGPT creator will go public before its rival. This prediction, expiring in 2040, has seen $62.6K in volume for the 'Anthropic IPO first' bet and $51.0K for the 'OpenAI IPO first' bet. Beyond IPOs, the AI space is buzzing with other speculative bets. The question of [whether Elon Musk will visit Mars in his lifetime](/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/ai-giants-eye-ipos-markets-bet-on-openai-vs-anthropic) commands significant attention, with $81.1K in volume, reflecting optimism for the SpaceX founder's ambitions. Other space-related bets include whether SpaceX will land anything on Mars before 2030 ($59.7K volume) and a direct comparison: [Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?](/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/space-race-blue-origin-vs-spacex-on-the-moon), which has amassed $59.4K in trading volume. Further out, markets ponder the feasibility of a humanoid robot walking on Mars before a human does by 2035 ($46.6K volume) and the timeline for nuclear fusion, with bets placed on achieving it by 2030, 2035, or 2040. **Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXELONMARS-99) ## War & Geopolitics The War & Geopolitics category highlights substantial bets on long-term outcomes. The most active market, with $3.3 million in volume, speculates on whether Trump will buy Greenland. Other long-term political bets include who will be Trump's next Attorney General, with over $1.1 million in volume for that specific market. The EU's expansion before 2030 is also a significant market, drawing $6.7K in volume for the 'Yes' outcome. **Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-NBEN) ## Politics In politics, the potential for Donald Trump to purchase Greenland is the dominant theme, with multiple markets totaling millions in volume. One market, set to expire in 2029, shows a 27% chance of Trump buying Greenland. Another, expiring in May 2026, has even lower odds at 0.4%. The succession of Trump's Attorney General is another high-volume political prediction, with markets reflecting uncertainty about the appointee by January 2029. **EU has a new member before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/EUEXPANSION-30) **How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCO2LEVEL-30-450) **Delaware governor winner? (2028)**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYDE-28-R) **Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMOONMAN-31-USA) **Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOAIANTH-40-ANTH) **Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXSPACEXMARS-30) **Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBLUESPACEX-30) **Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXROBOTMARS-35) **When will nuclear fusion be achieved?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFUSION-30-JAN01) **Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/STARSHIPMARS-29DEC31) **Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCOLONIZEMARS-50) **Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMARSVRAIL-50) **Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXDATACENTER-30) **Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXGREENLAND-29) **Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXNEXTAG-29-TBLA) --- Original analysis from [startuphub.ai](https://www.startuphub.ai), the #1 AI startup directory. © StartupHub.ai. 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