# AI Giants Weigh IPO: OpenAI vs. Anthropic _Prediction markets favor Anthropic IPOing before OpenAI, highlighting intense investor interest in the AI sector's public market future._ **Published:** 2026-07-16 **Source:** https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/ai-giants-weigh-ipo-openai-vs-anthropic --- The race to the public markets between AI powerhouses OpenAI and Anthropic is drawing significant attention, with prediction markets giving Anthropic the edge. Traders on Kalshi believe Anthropic is more likely to achieve an IPO before OpenAI, a sentiment reflected in the market's 85.0% odds for Anthropic to go public first. AI Giants IPO RaceDriver OpenAI vs. Anthropic vying for public market debuttracked byPrediction MarketsContextKalshi platform allows betting on future company milestonesFrom the article 9+ mentionsThe race to the public markets between AI powerhouses OpenAI and Anthropic is drawing significant attention, with prediction markets giving Anthropic the edge.showsAnthropic FavoredOutcomeFrom the article 4 mentionsTraders on Kalshi believe Anthropic is more likely to achieve an IPO before OpenAI, a sentiment reflected in the market's 85.0% odds for Anthropic to go public first.OpenAI Lower OddsOutcomeFrom the article 2 mentionsConversely, the market betting on OpenAI going public first sits at $146.0K volume with only 19.0% odds.High Trading VolumeEffect$166.2K volume for Anthropic IPO first marketFrom the articleThe AI & Tech category on Kalshi is seeing substantial trading volume, indicating a keen interest in predicting the next major milestones for leading companies in the field.Investor InterestCoresignificant focus on AI sector's public market futureFrom the article 2 mentionsThis speculative activity underscores the intense investor focus on the future of artificial intelligence.fuelsAI Sector GrowthEffectunderscores intense investor focus on artificial intelligence This speculative activity underscores the intense investor focus on the [future](/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/nato-chief-odds-who-s-next) of artificial intelligence. The AI & Tech category on Kalshi is seeing substantial trading volume, indicating a keen interest in predicting the next major milestones for leading companies in the field. ## AI & Tech Bets The market for "Will Open AI or Anthropic IPO first?" has already seen $166.2K in volume, with the "Yes" option (implying Anthropic IPOs first) commanding 85.0% odds. Conversely, the market betting on OpenAI going public first sits at $146.0K volume with only 19.0% odds. This financial forecasting platform, [Kalshi, All Markets](https://kalshi.com/markets?digest=2026-07-16), allows users to bet on the outcomes of future events. The current total combined volume across all tracked markets stands at $3.2 million. The AI and Tech section is particularly active. Markets are also forecasting major space exploration events, including the likelihood of Blue Origin landing on the moon before SpaceX, with 64.0% odds favoring Blue Origin. SpaceX's own ambitions are also under scrutiny, with markets betting on whether the company will land anything successfully on Mars before 2030 (28.0% odds). The possibility of humanoid robots reaching Mars before humans is also being priced in, with a near 50/50 split in the market. Elsewhere, the future leadership of NATO is a subject of speculation, with Kaja Kallas leading the odds among potential successors. Betting on the next Secretary General of NATO is a lively market. The question of when nuclear fusion will be achieved also sees varied predictions, with the most active market suggesting a 33.3% chance before 2030. Even the expansion of the European Union by 2030 is a topic for prediction markets, with a 76.0% chance of new members joining. **Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXELONMARS-99) **Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-NBEN) **When will Ukraine hold a presidential election?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXELECTUKRAINE-30JAN01-27JAN01) **How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCO2LEVEL-30-450) **EU has a new member before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/EUEXPANSION-30) **Who will be the next Secretary General of NATO?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXNEXTNATOSECGEN-99-KKAL) **Super Ballon d'Or awarded before 2030**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXSUPERBALLONDOR-30-YES) **Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOAIANTH-40-ANTH) **Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMOONMAN-31-USA) **Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBLUESPACEX-30) **Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXSPACEXMARS-30) **Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXROBOTMARS-35) **Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/STARSHIPMARS-29DEC31) **When will nuclear fusion be achieved?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFUSION-30-JAN01) **Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCOLONIZEMARS-50) **Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/events/KXMARSVRAIL-50) --- Original analysis from [startuphub.ai](https://www.startuphub.ai), the #1 AI startup directory.