# AI Giants Face IPO Test
_Prediction markets show strong conviction that either OpenAI or Anthropic will go public before 2040, with significant bets placed on the outcome._
**Published:** 2026-06-12
**Source:** https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/ai-giants-face-ipo-test
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The race to public markets for leading AI labs like [OpenAI](/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/ai-ipos-betting-on-openai-vs-anthropic) and Anthropic is a hot topic, with prediction markets placing significant odds on their eventual IPOs. A market on Kalshi, All Markets indicates an 83% probability that either OpenAI or Anthropic will go public before 2040, with substantial trading volume reflecting investor interest.

AI Labs RaceDriver

From the articleThe race to public markets for leading AI labs like OpenAI and Anthropic is a hot topic, with prediction markets placing significant odds on their eventual IPOs.fuelsIPO AnticipationContextprediction markets show strong conviction for eventual IPOsFrom the article 4 mentionsThis betting reflects a high degree of anticipation for these major AI players to enter the public sphere.reflected inKalshi MarketCoreFrom the article 9+ mentionsA market on Kalshi, All Markets indicates an 83% probability that either OpenAI or Anthropic will go public before 2040, with substantial trading volume reflecting investor interest.OpenAI vs. AnthropicContextmarket sentiment favors OpenAI IPO over Anthropic'sFrom the article 4 mentionsWill OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?, Trade on KalshiInvestor InterestEffectFrom the articleA market on Kalshi, All Markets indicates an 83% probability that either OpenAI or Anthropic will go public before 2040, with substantial trading volume reflecting investor interest.Contradictory OddsContextFrom the article 2 mentionsCurrent market sentiment favors OpenAI, with a 18% chance of an OpenAI IPO versus Anthropic's 83% chance of going public first, a seemingly contradictory but common outcome in prediction markets where both 'Yes' and 'No' scenarios are often heavily traded.Public MarketsOutcomehigh anticipation for these AI players to enter public sphereFrom the article 5 mentionsThe race to public markets for leading AI labs like OpenAI and Anthropic is a hot topic, with prediction markets placing significant odds on their eventual IPOs.

## OpenAI vs. Anthropic IPO Odds

The specific question of which AI powerhouse will IPO first is being closely watched. Current market sentiment favors OpenAI, with a 18% chance of an OpenAI IPO versus Anthropic's 83% chance of going public first, a seemingly contradictory but common outcome in prediction markets where both 'Yes' and 'No' scenarios are often heavily traded.

This betting reflects a high degree of anticipation for these major AI players to enter the public sphere.

The total combined volume across all active Kalshi prediction markets stands at $8.1 million.

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Original analysis from [startuphub.ai](https://www.startuphub.ai), the #1 AI startup directory.