# AI Giants Face IPO Questions _Prediction markets show a lean towards Anthropic IPOing before OpenAI, with significant bets also placed on future space missions and geopolitical events._ **Published:** 2026-04-30 **Source:** https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/ai-giants-face-ipo-questions --- The race to the public markets for AI titans OpenAI and Anthropic is a hot topic, with prediction markets weighing in on who will make the leap first. According to [Kalshi, All Markets](https://kalshi.com/markets?digest=2026-04-30) data, traders are placing significant bets on the timeline, with a clear favorite emerging. The market is leaning towards Anthropic going public before OpenAI, with 71.0% odds for Anthropic and 33.0% odds for OpenAI to IPO first by 2040. This suggests a perceived faster path to a public offering for Anthropic, despite OpenAI's higher profile. Beyond the AI IPO race, prediction markets are reflecting significant investor interest in future technological and geopolitical landscapes. The total volume across active markets reached $20.6 million, underscoring a broad appetite for foresight into complex events. ## AI & Tech's Future Bets The AI & Tech sector alone saw substantial activity. The question of which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon before 2031 is drawing considerable volume, with the USA holding a 54.0% chance according to market odds. SpaceX's ambitions are also under scrutiny, with markets betting on a successful Mars landing before 2030 (29.0% odds) and a humanoid robot potentially walking on Mars before a human does by 2035 (46.0% odds). Even the long-term prospect of nuclear fusion is being priced in, with markets indicating a 38.2% chance of achievement by January 1, 2030. **Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXELONMARS-99) ## Geopolitical and Political Speculation In War & Geopolitics, Elon Musk's potential visit to Mars before 2099 is a notable market, with 9.0% odds for 'Yes'. The political arena is equally active, with massive volume in markets predicting Trump's potential acquisition of Greenland. There's significant speculation around who Trump's next Attorney General might be, with specific candidates like Tim Blake Norton (55.0% odds) and Loretta Lynch (27.0% odds) being heavily traded. Looking at global shifts, the question of whether the EU will have a new member before 2030 is seeing strong sentiment, with a 72.0% probability assigned to 'Yes'. This prediction market for EU expansion offers a fascinating glimpse into potential geopolitical realignments, a topic also explored in [Israel's Next PM: Betting Market Odds](/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/israel-s-next-pm-betting-market-odds). **Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-NBEN) **EU has a new member before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/EUEXPANSION-30) **How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCO2LEVEL-30-440) **Delaware governor winner? (2028)**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYDE-28-R) **Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMOONMAN-31-USA) **Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOAIANTH-40-ANTH) **Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXSPACEXMARS-30) **Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBLUESPACEX-30) **Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXROBOTMARS-35) **When will nuclear fusion be achieved?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFUSION-30-JAN01) **Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/STARSHIPMARS-29DEC31) **Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCOLONIZEMARS-50) **Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMARSVRAIL-50) **Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXDATACENTER-30) **Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXGREENLAND-29) **Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXNEXTAG-29-TBLA) --- Original analysis from [startuphub.ai](https://www.startuphub.ai), the #1 AI startup directory.