# AI Giants Eye IPOs: Markets Bet on OpenAI or Anthropic First _Prediction markets show a strong lean towards Anthropic IPOing before OpenAI, with significant trading volume on the outcome._ **Updated:** 2026-08-22 **Published:** 2026-07-14 **Source:** https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/ai-giants-eye-ipos-markets-bet-on-openai-or-anthropic-first --- The race to the public markets between AI titans OpenAI and Anthropic is heating up, at least on the prediction markets. Traders on [Kalshi](/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/ukraine-election-odds-on-kalshi) are placing bets on which of the leading generative AI companies will IPO first, with a significant amount of capital flowing into this specific market. The event is set to resolve by January 8, 2040. AI Giants Eye IPOsDriverOpenAI and Anthropic racing to public markets firstdrivesPrediction Markets ActiveContexttraders on Kalshi placing bets on IPO orderFrom the article 2 mentionsThe total volume across all active Kalshi markets reached $3.1 million, highlighting broad interest in predicting future events.Anthropic FavoredOutcome82% probability for Anthropic to IPO before OpenAIFrom the article 5 mentionsThe race to the public markets between AI titans OpenAI and Anthropic is heating up, at least on the prediction markets.Market Resolves 2040ContextFrom the articleThe event is set to resolve by January 8, 2040.Total Volume $3.1MContextFrom the article 2 mentionsThe total volume across all active Kalshi markets reached $3.1 million, highlighting broad interest in predicting future events.despiteOpenAI Still CompetitiveContextFrom the articleHowever, the market for OpenAI IPOing first still commands considerable volume, indicating a competitive outlook.also reflectsHigh Investor AnticipationEffectFrom the articleThis focus on the OpenAI Anthropic IPO race underscores the intense investor anticipation surrounding the future of artificial intelligence and its major players. Currently, the market sentiment favors Anthropic making its public debut before OpenAI. [Bets](/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/netanyahu-succession-bets) on Anthropic IPOing first hold an 82% probability, suggesting a strong conviction from traders. However, the market for OpenAI IPOing first still commands considerable volume, indicating a competitive outlook. This focus on the **OpenAI Anthropic IPO** race underscores the intense investor anticipation surrounding the future of artificial intelligence and its major players. The total volume across all active Kalshi [market](/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/israel-s-next-pm-betting-market-odds)s reached $3.1 million, highlighting broad interest in predicting future events. ## AI & Tech Predictions Beyond the IPO question, the AI and Tech sector on Kalshi features other intriguing predictions. Markets are also tracking the progress of space exploration, including which country will next send humans to the Moon and the timelines for potential Mars missions. The question of whether Blue Origin will land on the moon before SpaceX is also drawing attention, with a 63% probability assigned to Blue Origin achieving this milestone first. Similarly, the prospect of SpaceX successfully landing on Mars before 2030 is being actively traded, though with lower odds. The potential for a humanoid robot to walk on Mars before a human does is another market capturing interest, with nearly even odds. These markets reflect a broader fascination with technological advancement and the future of human endeavor in space. **Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXELONMARS-99) **Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-NBEN) **When will Ukraine hold a presidential election?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXELECTUKRAINE-30JAN01-27JAN01) **How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCO2LEVEL-30-450) **EU has a new member before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/EUEXPANSION-30) **Who will be the next Secretary General of NATO?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXNEXTNATOSECGEN-99-KKAL) **Super Ballon d'Or awarded before 2030**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXSUPERBALLONDOR-30-YES) **Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOAIANTH-40-ANTH) **Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMOONMAN-31-USA) **Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBLUESPACEX-30) **Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXSPACEXMARS-30) **Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXROBOTMARS-35) **Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/STARSHIPMARS-29DEC31) **When will nuclear fusion be achieved?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFUSION-30-JAN01) **Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCOLONIZEMARS-50) **Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/events/KXMARSVRAIL-50) --- Original analysis from [startuphub.ai](https://www.startuphub.ai), the #1 AI startup directory. © StartupHub.ai. 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