# AI Giants Eye IPO: Who Will Go Public First? _Kalshi prediction markets show traders betting on Anthropic to IPO before OpenAI, with significant volume in AI and geopolitical futures._ **Published:** 2026-07-19 **Source:** https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/ai-giants-eye-ipo-who-will-go-public-first --- Traders on the Kalshi prediction market platform are placing substantial bets on the future of AI giants, with a particular focus on which of the leading generative AI companies, OpenAI or Anthropic, will go public first. The total volume across active markets reached $3.2 million, indicating significant investor interest in future events. AI Giants IPOContext From the article 5 mentionsTraders on the Kalshi prediction market platform are placing substantial bets on the future of AI giants, with a particular focus on which of the leading generative AI companies, OpenAI or Anthropic, will go public first.tracked byKalshi Prediction MarketsCoreplatform where traders place substantial bets on future events and outcomesFrom the article 3 mentionsTraders on the Kalshi prediction market platform are placing substantial bets on the future of AI giants, with a particular focus on which of the leading generative AI companies, OpenAI or Anthropic, will go public first.Anthropic FavoredOutcome85.0% odds for Anthropic to IPO before OpenAI, with significant volumeFrom the article 6 mentionsThe question of whether OpenAI or Anthropic will IPO first before 2040 sees a strong lean towards Anthropic.High Market VolumeEffectFrom the article 3 mentionsThe total volume across active markets reached $3.2 million, indicating significant investor interest in future events.Geopolitics MarketsContextFrom the article 9+ mentionsBeyond AI, prediction markets are also active in war and geopolitics.OpenAI Odds LowerOutcome83.0% odds against OpenAI IPOing first, indicating less market confidenceFrom the articleConversely, the market betting on OpenAI to IPO first has seen $146.2K in volume, with 'No' (meaning Anthropic goes first) at 83.0% odds.Elon Musk Mars BetContextFrom the article 3 mentionsA significant $112.6K has been wagered on whether Elon Musk will visit Mars in his lifetime, with an expiration date set for 2099. The question of whether OpenAI or Anthropic will IPO first before 2040 sees a strong lean towards Anthropic. The market for 'Will Open AI or Anthropic IPO first?' has garnered $166.4K in volume, with 'Yes' (implying Anthropic goes first) holding 85.0% odds. Conversely, the market betting on OpenAI to IPO first has seen $146.2K in volume, with 'No' (meaning Anthropic goes first) at 83.0% odds. ## War & Geopolitics Markets Beyond AI, prediction markets are also active in war and geopolitics. A significant $112.6K has been wagered on whether Elon Musk will visit Mars in his lifetime, with an expiration date set for 2099. This market offers a glimpse into long-term speculative sentiment, much like the speculation surrounding future leadership in Israel, where multiple potential successors to Netanyahu are being bet upon, with markets extending to 2045. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine also features, with markets assessing the timeline for a presidential election. The question of EU expansion by 2030 is also being actively traded, drawing parallels to the speculative activity surrounding who will be the next Secretary General of NATO. [The race for NATO's top job](/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/nato-chief-odds-who-s-next) is also seeing varied bets, with candidates like Kaja Kallas and Ursula von der Leyen among those being priced in. Environmental concerns are also on the radar, with markets predicting CO2 atmospheric concentration levels before 2030. The potential for an expanded European Union by 2030 is also a subject of prediction, with 76.0% odds favoring new members joining the bloc. **Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXELONMARS-99) ## AI & Tech Deep Dive The AI & Tech section highlights the anticipated IPOs of OpenAI and Anthropic as the top-funded market. However, the broader tech landscape is also being scrutinized. The race to the Moon is a hot topic, with markets questioning which country will be the next to send humans to lunar soil before 2031. The U.S. currently leads this prediction, followed closely by China. [This lunar competition](/ai-news/prediction-markets/2026/moon-race-heats-up-bets-on-for-space-race) is generating considerable interest. Blue Origin and SpaceX are also subjects of prediction, specifically regarding lunar landings before 2030. The possibility of humanoid robots reaching Mars before humans by 2035 is also being bet upon, alongside SpaceX's own Mars ambitions, including successful landings before 2030 and manned missions. The long-term potential of fusion power is also a significant area of speculation. Markets are actively trading on when nuclear fusion will be achieved, with various deadlines set, including 2030, 2035, and 2040. The possibility of human colonization of Mars before 2050 is also a prominent market, reflecting enduring interest in off-world settlement. The source for this data is [Kalshi, All Markets](https://kalshi.com/markets?digest=2026-07-19). **Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-NBEN) **When will Ukraine hold a presidential election?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXELECTUKRAINE-30JAN01-27JAN01) **How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCO2LEVEL-30-450) **EU has a new member before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/EUEXPANSION-30) **Who will be the next Secretary General of NATO?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXNEXTNATOSECGEN-99-KKAL) **Super Ballon d'Or awarded before 2030**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXSUPERBALLONDOR-30-YES) **Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXOAIANTH-40-ANTH) **Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMOONMAN-31-USA) **Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBLUESPACEX-30) **Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXSPACEXMARS-30) **Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXROBOTMARS-35) **Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/STARSHIPMARS-29DEC31) **When will nuclear fusion be achieved?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFUSION-30-JAN01) **Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCOLONIZEMARS-50) **Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?**, [Trade on Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/events/KXMARSVRAIL-50) --- Original analysis from [startuphub.ai](https://www.startuphub.ai), the #1 AI startup directory.