# AI could make drug discovery repeatable _a16z argues AI raises drug success odds and cuts time, turning hits into repeatable annuities._ **Published:** 2026-11-13 **Source:** https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/investors-news/2026/ai-could-make-drug-discovery-repeatable --- No venue prices the [a16z Blog](https://www.a16z.news/p/big-pharma-can-rival-big-software) thesis that Big Pharma can rival Big Software, so there are no current odds, no volume and no move to track. The limit is that this is an investor thesis, not a resolvable event. Not financial advice. Markets move fast. Hits Drive PharmaDrivertop 25 percent of drugs generate about 85 percent of revenuesFrom the articlePharma is a hits business that pays like an annuity.definesBlockbuster Scale DefinedContextmore than 300 drugs globally projected to top 1B yearly salesneedsAI Boosts DiscoveryCoreraises success odds and cuts time turning hits into repeatable annuitiesFrom the article 2 mentionsContract research organizations face the overflow, with a16z sizing the global CRO market at $90B today, split as $30B in discovery and preclinical plus $60B in clinical trials.enablesPharma Rivals SoftwareEffectnine pharma over 200B versus sixteen software at that sizeFrom the article 2 mentionsNo venue prices the a16z Blog thesis that Big Pharma can rival Big Software, so there are no current odds, no volume and no move to track.validatesRepeatable Annuity FutureOutcomea16z thesis big pharma can rival big software via aiHits Drive PharmaDrivertop 25 percent of drugs generate about 85 percent of revenuesFrom the articlePharma is a hits business that pays like an annuity.Blockbuster Scale DefinedContextmore than 300 drugs globally projected to top 1B yearly salesRevenue Concentration RiskDrivermerck drew 54 percent of 2025 revenue from keytruda aloneAI Boosts DiscoveryCoreraises success odds and cuts time turning hits into repeatable annuitiesFrom the article 2 mentionsContract research organizations face the overflow, with a16z sizing the global CRO market at $90B today, split as $30B in discovery and preclinical plus $60B in clinical trials.enablesPharma Rivals SoftwareEffectnine pharma over 200B versus sixteen software at that sizeFrom the article 2 mentionsNo venue prices the a16z Blog thesis that Big Pharma can rival Big Software, so there are no current odds, no volume and no move to track.Lilly Tops TrillionOutcomeeli lilly over 1T market cap after tirzepatide blockbuster successRepeatable Annuity FutureOutcomea16z thesis big pharma can rival big software via ai Can drugmakers really be worth as much as software giants? A16z says yes, and AI will widen the prize. A blockbuster drug is a therapy projected to top $1B in yearly sales. A16z counts more than 300 such drugs globally, per its Nov. 13 post, and pegs the top 30 pharma companies at roughly $5T in market cap. Nine pharma companies top $200B, per a16z, against 16 software companies at that size, with [Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY)](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LLY:NYSE) over $1T after tirzepatide. Pharma is a hits business that pays like an annuity. The top 25% of drugs generate about 85% of revenues, per a16z, and the top 10 pharma companies draw roughly 50% of revenue from their top three assets. [Merck (NYSE:MRK)](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/MRK:NYSE) drew 54% of 2025 revenue from Keytruda, per a16z, while Lilly drew 63% from its GLP portfolio. Patents last 20 years from filing, which leaves 10 to 14 years after launch, per a16z, and Dupixent shows the curve with nearly $18B in 2025 sales after a 2017 launch and U.S. patent expiry expected in 2031. Lilly’s injectable GLP-1 portfolio did close to $17B in Q3 2026 alone, nearly matching [Anthropic](https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/startup-news/2026/anthropic-eyes-900b-valuation-in-massive-funding-talks)’s revenue that quarter, per a16z. Analysts expect Lilly’s GLP-1 portfolio to exceed $100B in annual sales by 2030, per a16z. Yet FDA approvals still run only 40 to 50 novel drugs per year, per a16z, with less than 5% of candidates reaching approval and a risk-adjusted present-value cost near $2B over 13 years. That math forces R&D chiefs, medicinal chemists and clinical operations teams to change how they spend. AI-native biotech startups want target search, molecule ranking, protocol design, recruitment and FDA drafting done with models before wet-lab spend. Contract research organizations face the overflow, with a16z sizing the global CRO market at $90B today, split as $30B in discovery and preclinical plus $60B in clinical trials. So will investors ever pay for a discovery engine? A discounted cash flow is a valuation that prices expected future cash from approved drugs. A16z says Big Pharma trades at 8 to 20 times forward earnings, or 3 to 7 times revenue, with little credit for early pipelines because Humira at AbbVie fell from $20B in 2022 to $4B in 2025 after loss of exclusivity. Scrutiny is growing around AI biology work, as WIRED reported Tabula Bioscience was also involved in research cited by Radical without disclosure in its announcement last month. Regulated steps like chronic toxicology studies still set a hard floor on speed, per a16z. Watch whether AI-native biotech startups can replace patent-cliff revenue themselves instead of selling to Big Pharma. A16z launched The Biotech Ecosystem Fund with [Eli Lilly](https://www.startuphub.ai/ai-news/public-companies/2026/apple-ai-hype-fuels-tech-stocks-eli-lilly-gains) to back that infrastructure bet. --- Original analysis from [startuphub.ai](https://www.startuphub.ai), the #1 AI startup directory. © StartupHub.ai. All rights reserved. You may not republish this article in full without a license. Search engines and AI research tools may crawl and summarize for reference. Bulk reproduction or model training on this content requires a license. See https://www.startuphub.ai/terms.